Energy

For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the
geopolitics of oil and gas. However, geopolitics and the global energy economy
are both changing. The international order predominant since the
end of World War II faces mounting challenges. At the same time, renewable
energy is growing rapidly. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of renewable
energy has received relatively little attention, especially when considering
the far-reaching consequences of a global shift to renewable energy.

The paper starts with a discussion of seven renewable energy scenarios
for the coming decades: the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the EIA’s
International Energy Outlook 2016, IRENA’s REmap 2016, Bloomberg’s
New Energy Outlook 2016, BP’s Energy Outlook 2016, Exxon-Mobil’s Outlook
for Energy 2016 and the joint IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization
scenario.

A new Belfer Center initiative seeks to research and analyze defense, security, and intelligence issues on the Arabian Peninsula. 

Anne-Marie Slaughter, the president of New America Foundation, says the Russians hacked the presidential election and the U.S. needs to respond, but the national trauma of 9/11 and the Iraq War has made the U.S. more timid and reluctant to use force. Prior to that, Deutsche Bank’s Sebastien Galy says the catalyst for a stronger dollar will be better data in the U.S. Then, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity’s chief market strategist, says you should never sell until you’re in close proximity to a recession. Nicholas Burns, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, says you need to work across borders to counter modern terrorism. Finally, Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of University of California, Irvine’s School of Law, says Neil Gorsuch is smart and articulate but isn’t answering many questions in Congress.

The agreement to freeze production was geopolitical not economic, writes Meghan O’Sullivan in the Financial Times.

On June 23 and 24, twenty five experts met at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government under the auspices of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. The group, which included experts from academia, the financial sector, government, and the energy industry, spent an evening and the following full day discussing and debating the possible energy implications of a nuclear deal between the P5+1 and Iran.

In this installment of “Inside the Middle East: Q&A,” Dr. Abbas Al-Mejren, Kuwait Foundation Visiting Scholar at the Middle East Initiative and Professor of Economics at Kuwait University, discusses economic development plans in Kuwait and Gulf Cooperation Council countries, including poverty alleviation and rationalizing subsidies.

With a few exceptions, the consensus emerging from last week’s inconclusive Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting is that if OPEC is not dead, it is at least in a coma.  This may be a reasonable judgment based on the group’s ability to take collective action on a production cut to bolster the price of oil in the short run.