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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy address a media conference during a NATO summit

AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis

Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Ukraine-NATO Primer: Membership Options Following the 2023 Annual Summit

| July 14, 2023

From July 11-12, 2023, NATO leaders gathered in Vilnius, Lithuania for one of the most significant NATO summits in history. This timely brief by Eric Rosenbach, Grace Jones, and Olivia Leiwant serves as a background piece on Ukraine’s history with NATO, potential future pathways for accession, and the operational impact Ukraine’s NATO membership could have on the alliance. 

Hijacked airliner headed toward World Trade Towers on September 11, 2001

REUTERS/Sean Adair

Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Countering Terrorism With "Blue Sky" Thinking

| May 19, 2022

In the past, strategic surprise has often stemmed from a failure of imagination. Most intelligence failures are rooted in a lack of foresight or early warning of impending events. Blue sky thinking seeks to prevent these surprises by devoting more attention not just to known risks and likely scenarios, but also to low probability, high impact events. In an unprecedented step in forging ongoing global collaboration, 129 global experts gathered in Amman, Jordan, in December 2021. The conference was held under the auspices of Jordan’s Aqaba Process and facilitated by representatives from the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center’s Intelligence Project. Attendees included intelligence officers, diplomats, military officers, private sector practitioners, and academics representing 29 countries, 5 continents, and 68 government and private sector organizations. Through presentations and discussion under Chatham House Rules, the conference facilitated an open exchange of ideas on the possible next big threats from terrorism and on strategies for moving forward.

In this photo provided by the Department of Defense, President Franklin D. Roosevelt sits in a jeep at Yalta with British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and V.M. Molotov, Feb. 1945.

AP Photo/Department of Defense

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Partnership or Predation? How Rising States Contend with Declining Great Powers

| Summer 2020

When and why do rising states prey upon or support declining powers? A state’s choice of policy toward a declining power depends on two factors: whether that power is useful against challengers to the rising state, and the declining state’s military strength.

A satellite view of Djibouti, showing the U.S. Navy’s Camp Lemonnier (bottom) and the People’s Liberation Army Support Base (top).

2020 Google Earth / Maxar Technologies, used with permission.

Paper

Cooperation, Competition, or Both? Options for U.S. Land Forces vis-à-vis Chinese Interests in Africa

| June 2020

This paper responds to a topic from the Army War College’s Key Strategic Issues List, 2018-2020: Evaluate the ramifications of China’s and/or Russia’s interests in Africa for U.S. land forces and suggest options, both to compete and to cooperate, to further U.S. interests.

While U.S. land forces may benefit from competition or cooperation with Chinese elements in Africa, I judge that they possess limited agency to compete or cooperate in the context of these definitions. Therefore, I will take a whole-of-government approach to furthering U.S. interests in Africa vis-à-vis China.

Analysis & Opinions - Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship

Critical Times for the Atlantic Alliance

| Nov. 13, 2019

As part of the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship’s (PETR) event series, Nicholas Burns, Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations, moderated a conversation on the crisis in the transatlantic relationship with Ambassador Victoria Nuland, Senior Fellow on the Future of Diplomacy Project and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, and Ambassador Philippe Etienne, Ambassador of France to the United States and diplomatic adviser to the President of the French Republic. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump

AP

Analysis & Opinions

New Challenges Behind NATO

| Apr. 06, 2019

Turkish-American relations are in crisis once again, this time due to the Turkish purchase of the S-400 air defense systems from Russia and a possible consequential U.S. embargo against Turkey in the F-35 fighter jet project. Turkey will get the delivery of the air defense system by July this year. The American administration believes that pushing Turkey out of the F-35 project may stop this process.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg addresses a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill in Washington.

Associated Press

Analysis & Opinions - BBC News

NATO Chief Reaffirms Bond in US Congress Address

| Apr. 03, 2019

The Nato Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, has marked the alliance's 70th anniversary with a rare address to the US Congress. We hear from a former US ambassador to Nato, who says a strong, reliable US presidential leadership is required to enable the Alliance to meet challenges facing the organisation.

Estonian Military Officer reading NATO at 70

Munich Security Conference

Analysis & Opinions - Economist

What NATO Needs To Do To Live To Its 100th Birthday

| Mar. 14, 2019

Yet as this special report has pointed out, NATO is also deeply troubled. Douglas Lute and Nicholas Burns, two former American ambassadors to NATO, say Donald Trump has “hurtled the alliance into its most worrisome crisis in memory.” The report, “NATO at Seventy,” sets out a daunting array of the challenges it faces.