Belfer Center Regions en Trump Has Options If Oil Market Panics About Iran <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">May 10, 2018</time> <p>Oil markets have so far reacted to President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal without either enthusiasm or panic — without even much apparent interest. There are many good reasons for this, but also many reasons to think oil markets’ complacency could change. Fortunately, the Obama-era sanctions that Trump has moved to reimpose have some lesser-known safety valves should oil markets later overheat as a result of the Iran decision.</p> Belfer Center Handbook of the International Political Economy of Energy and Natural Resources <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Feb 12, 2018</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/wind%20and%20sun.jpg?itok=XC5xwulD" width="200" height="120" alt="Solar panel field and wind turbines" typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>This Handbook offers a comprehensive overview of the latest research from leading scholars on the international political economy of energy and resources. Highlighting the important conceptual and empirical themes, the chapters study all levels of governance, from global to local, and explore the wide range of issues emerging in a changing political and economic environment.</p> Belfer Center How Civil Wars End: The International System, Norms, and the Role of External Actors <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Jan 24, 2018</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/HowardJohnstonPhoto.jpg?itok=j8ql1rh6" width="200" height="120" alt="Bosnia President Alija Izetbegovic, left, shakes hands with Croatia President Franjo Tudjman in Dayton, Ohio, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 1995." typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>Historically, most civil wars have ended with the military defeat of the losing side. In the 1990s, by contrast, civil wars usually ended with a negotiated settlement. What accounts for this anomaly?</p> Belfer Center Trade and Inequality Within Countries <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Jan 5, 2018</time> <p>Inequality has been on the rise within the United States and other advanced countries since the 1980s and especially since the turn of the century.  The possibility that trade is responsible for the widening gap between the rich and the rest of the population has of course become a major political preoccupation</p> Belfer Center Good Use of Your Holiday Gift Card (Before it Vanishes Behind the Fridge) <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Jan 2, 2018</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/Windfall%20Book%20Cover%20Front_1.jpg?itok=tlFqD9De" width="200" height="120" alt="Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America&#039;s Power, by Meghan O&#039;Sullivan. Published by Simon &amp; Schuster on September 12, 2017." typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>During our holiday newsletter hiatus, I finally had time to read Meghan O'Sullivan's book (pictured above) about how the shale boom is shaking up global oil-and-gas markets — a phenomenon that has broad and important geopolitical effects.</p> <p>The boom benefits U.S. global posture and economy, but O'Sullivan warns that policymakers cannot be complacent and must take steps to harness its geo-strategic benefits while mitigating environmental risks.</p> Belfer Center Global Review of Finance For Sustainable Urban Infrastructure <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Dec 21, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/14582751142_8f9530f96e_o.jpg?itok=Zhukg1xW" width="200" height="120" alt="Tokyo at night" typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>This paper is a background review representing part of the initial phase of the Financing the Urban Transition work program. The review builds on a growing body of research that highlights both the importance of national sustainable infrastructure and the need to develop more effective and efficient financing mechanisms for delivering compact, connected cities that meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. While progress has been made in both these areas over the last five years, there remains a policy gap between the international/national level and the municipal level.</p> Belfer Center The Long and Winding Road to a Haircut <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Nov 30, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/AP_17298716168173.jpg?itok=jgKrvOjP" width="200" height="120" alt="Workers prepare to unload banana boxes at a popular market in Caracas, Venezuela on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2017. The sign on the right reads in Spanish &quot;There is point,&quot; referring to the possibility of paying by card due to the lack of cash from the ongoing economic crisis. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)" typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>Default is back. Sovereign finances weathered a wrenching global recession and a collapse in commodity prices surprisingly well over the past few years. But failed economic models cannot limp along forever, and the slow bleeding of the economies of Puerto Rico and Venezuela have now forced their leaders to say “<em>no mas</em>” to repaying creditors</p> Belfer Center Nuclear Energy and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons: How Worried Should We Be? <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Nov 14, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/MillerPBPhoto.jpg?itok=aaP31Bfs" width="200" height="120" alt="Overhead view of the AP-1000 reactors under construction at the Vogtle Plant in Waynesboro, Georgia." typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>The historical record does not support the idea that nuclear energy programs increase the odds of proliferation.</p> Belfer Center Author Chat: Jacqueline Hazelton <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Nov 7, 2017</time> <p>Jacqueline Hazelton challenges the conventional wisdom that states must make liberalizing reforms and win the population’s “hearts and minds” to defeat insurgencies.</p> Belfer Center Is Geopolitics Still a Source of Volatility in Oil Markets? <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Oct 27, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/Fracking_the_Bakken_keeping_American_energy_independent.JPG?itok=EFsRFAkO" width="200" height="120" alt="Fracking the Bakken shale oil field, August 11, 2011" typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>The revolution in shale oil production in the United States has had a major impact on global energy markets, leading to the collapse of energy prices but also limiting their vulnerability to geopolitical instability. In an email interview, Meghan L. O’Sullivan, the Jeane Kirkpatrick professor of the practice of international affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, where she directs the Geopolitics of Energy Project, and the recent author of “<a href="" target="_blank">Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power</a>,” discusses what a rebalancing of supply and demand will mean for geopolitics going forward, if a supply gap is on the horizon, and how shale has boosted U.S. hard and soft power.</p> Belfer Center Why the Wafflers are Wrong <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Oct 26, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/beach-erosion-cape-cod.jpg?itok=ER_lAa1j" width="200" height="120" alt="Beach erosion on Cape Cod Bay " typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>Professor John P. Holdren gave the keynote address at the World Conference of Science Journalists in San Francisco, California, on October 26, 2017.</p> Belfer Center Why Nuclear Energy Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Oct 25, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/MillerPhoto.jpg?itok=W3ZvxEiv" width="200" height="120" alt="A worker checks the radioactivity of drums containing nuclear waste at Yonggwang Nuclear Power Site in Yonggwang, South Korea." typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>Contrary to conventional wisdom, states with nuclear energy programs are not more likely than those without them to seek or acquire nuclear weapons.</p> Belfer Center Take the Money and Run <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Oct 18, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/elsalvador-patrol.jpg?itok=lz8U3QRs" width="200" height="120" alt="Salvadoran soldiers patrol the streets of San Salvador, El Salvador" typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>How can the United States best assure its interests abroad when a partner state faces an insurgency? The question has vexed policymakers, military officers, and scholars throughout the Cold War and into the post–9/11 era. When the United States finds its military might turned against itself by insurgents, as in Iraq and Afghanistan, thoughts often turn to the small U.S.-supported counterinsurgency campaign in El Salvador from 1979 to 1992.</p> Belfer Center The Right Way to Do Regime Change in Venezuela <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Sep 28, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/We_Are_Millions_march_Venezuela.jpg?itok=nonn1ZVZ" width="200" height="120" alt="Millions of Venezuelans marching on 20 May 2017 during the We Are Millions march." typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>Unsurprisingly, President Donald Trump hasn’t held back when speaking about the political crisis in Venezuela. Before the United Nations General Assembly, he demanded the full restoration of “democracy and political freedoms” in the Latin American country. A month earlier, he stunned many by stating that he would not rule out a <a data-web-url="" href="" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">military intervention</a>. His UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, has echoed the fierce rhetoric, declaring that the U.S. will not tolerate a “dictatorship” in Venezuela.</p> <p>Observers are forgiven if they are perplexed. How is the administration’s position toward Venezuela consistent with its oft-stated insistence that every country has the right to be sovereign? Or with Trump’s promises that the days of Washington meddling in the domestic affairs of other countries are over?</p> Belfer Center Emissaries of Empowerment <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Sep 13, 2017</time> <p>In <em>Emissaries of Empowerment</em>, the authors examine the de-politicizing, and re-feminizing impact of contemporary empowerment-based interventions in the developing world and how these programs often reinforce, rather than combat, the deep marginalization of women.</p> Belfer Center Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America's Power <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Sep 12, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/Windfall%20Book%20Cover%20Front.jpg?itok=nhJP4Vom" width="200" height="120" alt="Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America&#039;s Power, by Meghan O&#039;Sullivan. Published by Simon &amp; Schuster on September 12, 2017." typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p><i>Windfall</i> is the boldest profile of the world’s energy resources since Daniel Yergin’s <i>The Quest</i>. Harvard professor and former Washington policymaker Meghan L. O’Sullivan reveals how fears of energy scarcity have given way to the reality of energy abundance. This abundance is transforming the geo-political order and boosting American power.</p> <p> </p> Belfer Center Ambassadors Jeffrey DeLaurentis, Jose Antonio Sabadell Named Fellows with Harvard’s Future of Diplomacy Project <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Sep 8, 2017</time> <p class="Body"><span><span><span>Ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis, former Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Havana, Cuba, and José Antonio Sabadell, former Ambassador of the European Union to Mauritania, have been named Fellows with the Future of Diplomacy Project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. DeLaurentis has been named Senior Diplomatic Fellow and Sabadell will be the first Rafael del Piño-MAEC (Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation) Fellow at the Future of Diplomacy Project. His fellowship is supported by a grant by the Rafael del Piño Foundation based in Madrid, Spain.</span></span></span></p> Belfer Center The FARC just became a Colombian political party. Here’s why elections are critical to a lasting peace. <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Aug 30, 2017</time> <p>Post-conflict elections with rebel parties let outside actors help enforce the rules.</p> Belfer Center Why a Sri Lankan Leader Might Be Tried for War Crimes in Brazil <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Aug 30, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/AP_242319308117.jpg?itok=yWUNlM2w" width="200" height="120" alt="Sri Lankan army commander Lt. Gen. Jagath Jayasuriya, center, salutes as the next Army Commander Major Gen. Daya Ratnayake, left, and Major Gen. Jagath Dias watch a military parade in Colombo, Sri Lanka, Tuesday, July 30, 2013. Ratnayake is the Sri Lankan army&#039;s 20th commander designate and will resume duties from August 1, 2013. (AP Photo/Eranga Jayawardena)" typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>"Brazil's legal code <a href="">allows its courts</a> to try anyone present on its territory for crimes that Brazil has treaty obligations to punish, like genocide or torture."</p> Belfer Center Why Good Governance Does Not Defeat Insurgencies <time datetime="00Z" class="datetime">Aug 7, 2017</time> <img src="/sites/default/files/styles/thumbnail/public/images/publication/feature/HazeltonPB_photo.jpg?itok=bb8pWJkn" width="200" height="120" alt="Why Good Governance Does Not Defeat Insurgencies" typeof="Image" class="image-style-thumbnail" /> <p>Good governance reforms are unnecessary for counterinsurgency success. Defeating insurgents instead requires brute force against civilians and the government’s accommodation of rival elites. </p> Belfer Center