Thucydides's Trap

For two Presidents who pride themselves as masters of the art of the deal, is there a potential bargain to be struck at Mar-a-Lago that could contain the North Korea crisis and point Beijing and Washington away from war? Potentially. 

Indeed, an essential element in the Chinese art of the deal is guanxi. In many cases, this includes direct payments to another leader that in English law tradition would be called bribes.

What made war “inevitable” was the tectonic structural stress caused when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one ― a phenomenon I’ve described as “Thucydides’s Trap.”

If Trump and Xi fail to find a way to join in acting decisively to contain this threat, we will all have good reason to fear a rush of events as consequential as those that upended Woodrow Wilson.

We are certain to see a succession of confrontations between China and the United States in the years ahead. What is in doubt is whether the leaders of these two great powers can manage these confrontations without escalating them to war. For now, that’s up to Trump and Xi.

As Trump and Xi prepare to meet, Gideon Rachman looks at the tests ahead for the world’s most important bilateral relationship

The real world offers no opportunity to opt out. We may try to escape responsibility by refusing to choose. But we cannot escape the consequences. Whether we make our bets explicitly, or only implicitly, stuff happens. Whether we act on the basis of our bets or not, the real world grinds on. Painful as it is, therefore, we must analyze the confusion as best we can, place our bets, and take the consequences.

The military reform in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), announced by China’s supreme party and state officials in 2015, is unprecedented in scale and depth. It aims to add a new dimension to China’s armed forces - to provide for more a compelling strategic deterrence and ability to win a local war, if such war breaks out. This reform is also a demonstration of a critical stage of development of China’s political system.

We urge the next president to establish a White House Council of Historical Advisers. Historians made similar recommendations to Presidents Carter and Reagan during their administrations, but nothing ever came of these proposals. Operationally, the Council of Historical Advisers would mirror the Council of Economic Advisers, established after World War II. A chair and two additional members would be appointed by the president to full-time positions, and respond to assignments from him or her. They would be supported by a small professional staff and would be part of the Executive Office of the President.

This week the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) will deliver its award in the Philippines’ case against China over maritime disputes in the South China Sea. In a bid to thwart Beijing’s attempt to turn the South China Sea into its own virtual lake, Manila contends that China’s claim to exclusive sovereignty over all the islands and shoals within the nine-dashed line – which encompasses 86 percent of the Sea – has no basis in international law. There is not much suspense about what the tribunal will decide: it will almost certainly side with the Philippines. The United States and its allies have already started criticizing China for signaling in advance that it will ignore the court’s ruling, which one Chinese official derided last week as  “nothing more than a piece of paper.”