This paper will discuss how much nuclear transparency China can afford to adopt in light of the changing international security context. The work will examine China''s attitude toward nuclear transparency; the possible influence of high-resolution satellite imagery on China''s position; what sorts of nuclear transparency China could accept under international arms control and nonproliferation treaties; and what kind of on-site inspections China could accept at its specific nuclear production facility and site under an FMCT.

The operation of dedicated plutonium-production reactors and large gaseous-diffusion uranium-enrichment plants (GDPs), can be detected remotely using commercial observation-satellite imagery. Declassified Corona imagery is used to demonstrate that the new generation of commercial observation satellites with 1-meter spatial resolution will be able to detect vapor plumes inside and downwind from large operating natural-draft cooling towers. Low-resolution Landsat-5 thermal infrared images have been shown by other authors to be able to detect warm water discharges from reactors into lakes, rivers, etc. Here, the same systems are shown to be able detect the elevated temperature of the roofs of large operating GDPs. Commercial-satellite observations could therefore play an important role in increasing confidence in declarations that plutonium-production reactors and GDPs have been shut down as a result of a fissile material-production moratorium or Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty.

One key building block in a comprehensive strategy to contain and eliminate nuclear weapons is the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT), which would ban the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) for nuclear weapons. However, negotiations on this treaty have been at an impasse in Geneva since 1993. Since realistically a FMCT will probably not come into force for some years, a moratorium on the production of fissile material for weapons should be encouraged in order to capture as many of the benefits of an FMCT in the interim.

Negotiations on a fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT) may soon be launched at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva after several years' delay caused by debates over its scope and linkage to nuclear disarmament measures. Fissile material, in practice plutonium or HEU, is the fundamental ingredient in all nuclear weapons. It is also the most difficult and expensive part to produce. A global, verified ban on the production of fissile materials for nuclear explosives would be a key building block in a comprehensive strategy to contain and eliminate nuclear weapons.

AFTER THEIR nuclear tests in May 1998, the Governments of India and Pakistan sought to placate international criticism by announcing that they did not intend conducting more tests and promising to control nuclear technology exports. They have also not yet deployed nuclear weapons. But, India and Pakistan have continued building up stocks of plutonium and highly-enriched uranium for nuclear weapons in a fissile material race with profound economic, environmental and health consequences for their people. Stopping this race would benefit both countries. Using newly available commercial satellite images they could verify a production freeze independently with considerable confidence

Nuclear weapons have the capability to destroy all the creatures of this Earth. As long as nuclear weapons exist, there is a danger of accidental or deliberate use with disastrous consequences. Therefore, the negotiation of a NWC is vital to all humanity. However, such negotiations have not started yet because of the opposition of the nuclear weapon states (except China). The NWC negotiations will not make progress without these states’ participation. The main reason for these nuclear states’ objections to NWC negotiations is that they continue to rely on the deterrence role of nuclear weapons, despite there being no rationale for deterrence since the end of the Cold War. To reach the goal of the NWC, therefore, the major steps are to reduce the deterrence role of nuclear weapons and to render such weapons unusable.