European nuclear deterrence future(s): NATO and beyond

Speaker: Łukasz Kulesa, Deputy Head of Research Office at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.

Between the end of the Cold War and Russian aggression against Ukraine, nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence remained a marginal issue for most European countries, and a back-burner question for NATO. Last years’ developments have brought the nuclear question back to the spotlight.

Russian aggression against Ukraine, nuclear intimidation directed against other European states, changes to its nuclear doctrine and forward-deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus have increased the nuclear threat level. There have also been increased concerns among several NATO states regarding the credibility and reliability of US extended deterrence guarantees, including the nuclear dimension.

From the vantage point of a Warsaw-based security expert, the presentation will focus on the nuclear threats facing Europe, initial lessons for nuclear deterrence from the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the review of responses, including ongoing adaptation of NATO’s nuclear deterrence posture, implementation of the French “forward deterrence” concept, the evolving role of the United Kingdom, and ideas for a “European” nuclear deterrent. The presentation will also touch upon the question of the likelihood of friendly (and unfriendly) nuclear proliferation in Europe.