Russian Strategic Nuclear Modernization in the 21st Century

Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal. I argue that Russian nuclear modernization is driven by security concerns and status ambitions. Specifically, nuclear modernization hedges against the future development of American ballistic missile defense and conventional counterforce capabilities that could erode Russia’s nuclear deterrent, which Russian leaders perceive to be the ultimate guarantor of Russian sovereignty and territorial integrity. While Russia’s perception of an American threat can explain why Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal, it cannot explain why it prioritizes particular systems over others, as multiple weapons systems may increase the survivability of the Russian nuclear arsenal. I argue that the Russian government prioritizes weapons that they can use as status symbols, such as novel weapons and those with some superlative claim. Other domestic factors cannot be ruled out by play a marginal role, at most.