China’s Uranium Enrichment Expansion: Worrisomely Large

In a new analysis, Hui Zhang examines the rapid expansion of China’s uranium enrichment capacity, which is projected to reach approximately 15.4 million SWU per year by the end of 2026—more than double its 2020 level. Drawing on satellite imagery, Chinese sources, and analysis of civilian enrichment requirements, Zhang finds that China’s growing capacity significantly exceeds projected nuclear power needs and argues that the expansion may also support the country’s accelerating nuclear weapons buildup. The study highlights the Emeishan facility in particular and considers what China’s enrichment expansion could mean for its nuclear strategy, fissile material production, and the future of global nonproliferation efforts.