In The News
from Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Arctic Initiative Highlights from Arctic Circle Assembly 2024

Our team recently returned from the largest annual international gathering on the Arctic, where we engaged with leaders and policymakers from over 60 countries on pressing Arctic issues. In this newsletter, you'll find new research on Arctic methane emissions, as well as insights from our team on science diplomacy, China in the Arctic, youth innovation, and more. 

John Holdren speaks into a handheld microphone in front of a crowd.
Arctic Initiative Co-Chair John Holdren presented on the growing significance of Arctic methane emissions at the 2024 Arctic Circle Assembly.

Arctic Methane Emissions Could Significantly Accelerate Global Warming

Better monitoring and international collaboration are urgently needed to understand and mitigate this escalating threat.

As the Arctic warms two to three times faster than the global average, there is a danger that emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from thawing permafrost will significantly accelerate the pace of global warming in this century, magnifying adaptation challenges and putting the goal of limiting warming to 2°C out of reach.

The amount of carbon in Arctic soils is about twice the amount currently in the atmosphere, and most of that carbon is in organic matter frozen in permafrost. Yet permafrost thaw is largely absent from global earth system models, and uncertainties surrounding the potential emissions of methane from Arctic ecosystems are even larger than the uncertainties around carbon dioxide emissions.

The Arctic Initiative, together with the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute, organized a session at Arctic Circle Assembly to share recommendations from a recently published white paper on the implications of Arctic methane emissions for global mitigation targets. Initiative Co-Chair John Holdren joined experts from the Wilson Center, Sandia National Laboratories, Woodwell Climate Research Center, and the Norwegian Chairship of the Arctic Council to provide an overview of the growing significance of Arctic methane and efforts to address it in the policy realm.

Panelists emphasized: 

  • A more rigorous understanding of methane release mechanisms and lifecycle, permafrost distributions, and changes in thaw rates must be a high priority for better understanding global climate change. This will require both more accurate estimates of current emissions from the Arctic and more realistic Earth System Models.
  • Better monitoring is urgently needed. It is imperative to accelerate the development of pan-Arctic satellite monitoring capabilities; to develop the ability to cross-calibrate data products from different types of methane sensors; and to improve models for predicting ecosystem transitions and greenhouse gas releases under different climate scenarios.
  • International scientific cooperation is imperative given the importance of pan-Arctic assessment of CH4 release from permafrost thaw. While geopolitical tensions with Russia remain high, science could be advanced through a combination of scientific collaborations among the seven like-minded Arctic nations and satellite monitoring.

Read the full white paper.

"The Future of Polar Science Diplomacy" panelists at Arctic Circle Assembly 2024.
"The Future of Polar Science Diplomacy" panelists (from left to right): Salomé Mormentyn, Polar Initiative Manager at the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation; Gerlis Fugmann, Executive Secretary of the International Arctic Science Committee; Arctic Initiative Senior Fellow Margaret Williams; Kuluk Lyberth, Marine Governance Policy Advisor at the Inuit Circumpolar Council Greenland; Arctic Initiative Co-Chair John Holdren; and Jane Francis, Director of the British Antarctic Survey. Present but not pictured: Petteri Vuorimäki, Senior Arctic Official & Ambassador of Arctic Affairs and Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland.

Advancing Arctic Science Diplomacy and Research Collaboration in Uncertain Times

In the Arctic, international science collaboration is both critical for understanding the dramatic environmental changes taking place in the region and a historic source of pride. However, heightened geopolitical tensions have stalled or halted many science- and knowledge-sharing efforts.

At Arctic Circle Assembly, our team organized two dialogues between scientists, policymakers, funders, and Indigenous leaders aimed at identifying pathways to strengthen and secure science diplomacy and science-based decision-making into the future.

On Thursday, Senior Fellow Margaret Williams moderated a session on leveraging scientific expertise for more effective policy in the polar regions, featuring Co-Chair John Holdren along with representatives from the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, the International Arctic Science Committee, and the Inuit Circumpolar Council. On Friday, Director Jennifer Spence also moderated a discussion on advancing Arctic research cooperation and diplomacy through ICARP IV, a multi-year, community-wide research planning process organized by the International Arctic Science Committee.

In both sessions, panelists emphasized the importance of:

  • Playing the long game: Arctic states should recognize the value and power of research cooperation and maintain working-level ties through times of high geopolitical tension, so that cooperation can quickly resume when relations normalize.
  • Funding and aligning research cooperation for maximum impact: It is essential for experts and Arctic residents to identify the research priorities that need the most attention, so that national funding bodies, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector can fund research that supports shared goals.
  • Considering future generations: “When considering our youth…the more I learn, the guiltier I feel. I think my generation has to understand our own failure. We knew. We could have acted. We did not. It’s not about our lives, it's about the lives of our children,” said Finnish Arctic Ambassador Peterri Vuorimaki.

Beyond ACA, our team will continue to explore opportunities for sustaining long-term international science collaboration. Later this year, we will host a workshop exploring the possibility of a “principled, pragmatic” approach to resuming U.S.-Russian cooperation between scientists. Jennifer Spence, as co-chair of the Arctic research cooperation and diplomacy ICARP IV research priority team, will also continue to engage diverse stakeholders in setting a path and a purpose for international Arctic research cooperation in preparation for the International Polar Year 2032.

Read High North News' coverage of "The Future of Polar Science Diplomacy."
 

The Role of Arctic Science in Iceland’s Relations with China and Japan

Rikey Hauksdottir.

With a strong Chinese presence at the Arctic Circle Assembly this year, on the heels of the first-ever Chinese Coast Guard patrol in the Arctic Ocean, Reykjavík was abuzz with curiosity about China’s interests and intentions in the Arctic. Predoctoral Research Fellow Ríkey Hauksdóttir presented her work, co-authored with Kristín Ingvarsdóttir, on the nature and role of Asian Arctic observer states’ use of science diplomacy, using a case study of China and Japan’s aurora borealis research in her home country of Iceland. Key takeaways:

  • While Japanese research has gone almost unnoticed for decades, Chinese research has been received with skepticism and negative media coverage.
  • China’s research in Iceland has been used as a tool to facilitate more strategic diplomatic goals - most importantly the bilateral Free Trade Agreement between China and Iceland in 2013.
  • In contrast, Japan’s research project has remained largely unconnected to Japan’s diplomacy in Iceland. 

Hauksdóttir and Ingvarsdóttir's work was recently cited by U.S. congressional representatives in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on China's dual use-research in the Arctic. Read the full article.

Nuancing Governance and Geopolitics in the Barents and Bering Seas

Romain Chuffart; Jennifer Spence; Andreas Østhagen; Maria Varteressian; Mike Sfraga.
"A 3D Approach to Geopolitics in the Barents and Bering Seas" panelists (left to right): Romain Chuffart, President of the Arctic Institute-Center for Circumpolar Security Studies; Jennifer Spence; Andreas Østhagen; Maria Varteressian, Deputy Foreign Minister of Norway; Mike Sfraga, U.S. Ambassador-At-Large for Arctic Affairs.

Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Arctic governance and geopolitics have received unprecedented global attention. But like many things in the Arctic, it can be misleading to talk about ‘governance’ and ‘geopolitics’ as uniform across the region. Director Jennifer Spence joined a conversation moderated by Initiative Affiliate Andreas Østhagen about the key differences between the North American and European Arctics. Her takeaways: 

  • How is governance different in the North American and European Arctics? "In the Barents, the Nordic countries share land and maritime boundaries with Russia that have been the foundation of social, economic and cultural connections for several decades. The Bering is a maritime boundary between two great powers – the USA and Russia – with Asian states, including China, just to the South."
  • Why does distinguishing between them matter? "As global geopolitical tensions spill into the Arctic, considering where bilateral or multilateral relationships have been maintained may offer insights for where and how functional cooperation could be advanced in the future."
  • How do we balance Arctic governance with global geopolitics? "Many experts still believe that there is a low probability of conflict in the Arctic, but maintaining governance mechanisms, such as the Arctic Council, should not be taken for granted. We are seeing more and more rhetoric and signaling by states that may produce unintended consequences."
     

Arctic Innovation Lab Helps Students and Youth Leaders Perfect Sustainability Pitches

Tessa Varvares moderates the Arctic Innovation Lab at Arctic Circle Assembly 2024.
Arctic Initiative Senior Program Coordinator Tessa Varvares introduced the ninth annual Arctic Innovation Lab. 

Ten students from across the Arctic, including two Harvard Kennedy School students, stress-tested their innovative solutions to pressing Arctic challenges during our Arctic Innovation Lab. Each student had just two minutes to present his or her pitch to an audience of policymakers, scientists, academics, and business leaders; the presentations were followed by round-table discussions with session attendees. The most promising solutions, as selected by our panel of judges and audience vote, were:

  • Sarah Newton, Yukon University - “Ground Source Health in Whitehorse, Yukon”
  • Aleksis Oreschnikoff, University of Helsinki - “Ensuring Just and Legitimate Knowledge-Transfer: The Case for an Arctic Inspections Regime”
  • Aruni Ranaweera, Harvard Kennedy School - “A Workforce for Resilience”
  • Aryama Bhattacharyya, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy - “Arctic Supply Chains and the Energy Transition”

 

Op-ed: "Recently, I stood before an international audience at the Arctic Circle Assembly in Reykjavik. In just 90 seconds, I had the chance to share a message I deeply believe in: Arctic communities aren't just facing challenges – they also have solutions to share."

-- Innovator Maria Kourkouli's reflected in High North News on participating in the Lab and the importance of listening to Arctic communities.

More Highlights

Margaret Williams, Tessa Varvares, Ríkey Hauksdóttir, Hannah Chenok, John Holdren, Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Jennifer Spence, Aruni Ranaweera, and Anders Edstrøm pose for a group photo in front of an Arctic Circle Assembly backdrop.
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The Arctic Initiative team (left to right): Margaret Williams, Tessa Varvares, Ríkey Hauksdóttir, Hannah Chenok, John Holdren, Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Jennifer Spence, Aruni Ranaweera, and Anders Edstrøm.

Jennifer Spence
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Jennifer Spence moderated an expert workshop on terrestrial monitoring of permafrost thaw, as part of the Initiative's work on the Permafrost Pathways project. 

Rikey Hauksdottir and Whitney Lackenbauer.
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Ríkey Hauksdóttir and Whitney Lackenbauer follow up on their October seminar, "Demystifying the Polar Silk Road," which explored China's Arctic investments and interests.

Jennifer Spence
Rikey Hauksdottir and Whitney Lackenbauer.
Margaret Williams, Tessa Varvares, Ríkey Hauksdóttir, Hannah Chenok, John Holdren, Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Jennifer Spence, Aruni Ranaweera, and Anders Edstrøm pose for a group photo in front of an Arctic Circle Assembly backdrop.
Recommended citation

Hanlon, Elizabeth and Tessa Varvares. “Arctic Initiative Highlights from Arctic Circle Assembly 2024.” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, October 29, 2024