The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
Please join the Intelligence Project and the Saudi & GCC Security Project for a seminar with Norman T. Roule. The conversation will focus on the inflection points which will shape the direction of the region. Specifically, Mr. Roule will highlight and discuss the likely impact of leadership transitions, the regional debate over the role of Islamic governance, impact of persistent and deep economic challenges, the Saudi-Iranian competition for influence, and the opportunities and challenges posed by ongoing events in Riyadh and Tehran.
Norman T. Roule served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence from November 2008 until September 2017. As NIM-I, he was the principal Intelligence Community (IC) official responsible for overseeing all aspects of national intelligence policy and activities related to Iran, to include IC engagement on Iran issues with senior policy makers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
During his 34-year career in the IC and in addition to Iran, Mr. Roule has managed numerous programs relating to the wider Middle East. He has held multiple senior assignments in Washington DC as well as during his 15 years working overseas.
Mr. Roule worked with five US Presidents and multiple cabinet officials as well as with senior policy, military, and security officials in Europe and the Middle East. He has had extensive engagement with senior U.S. military commanders, as well as senior officials at the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, and the Department of the Treasury. Mr. Roule has conducted hundreds of Congressional briefings.
In addition to his regional expertise, Mr. Roule has extensive experience with counterintelligence, counterproliferation, counterterrorism, cyber, and sanctions issues relating to the region. During his career he initiated and led numerous multi-agency programs which produced tailored analytic and collection products to enable policy makers across several administrations to understand geopolitical developments and navigate international challenges in a turbulent region.
Mr. Roule received multiple awards during his career. In recognition of his impact on national security, President Barack Obama personally awarded him with the George Washington Spymaster Award. Other recognition has included the Presidential Rank Award of Meritorious Senior Intelligence Service Officer, the National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the National Intelligence Superior Service Medal, the Central Intelligence Agency’s Director’s Award, and the National Geospatial Agency Medallion for Excellence.
Since leaving the Central Intelligence Agency in October 2017, Mr. Roule has appeared on Bloomberg Television, CNN, Fox news, NPR, and the popular podcast “Intelligence Matters.” He has spoken at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Council on Foreign Relations, and George Mason University Michael V. Hayden Center for Intelligence, Policy, and International Security. He serves as a frequent contributor to the website The Cipher Brief.
Mr. Roule currently serves as a Senior Adviser to the Counter Extremism Project and United Against Nuclear Iran.