Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world

Past Event
Seminar

Are You Certain? Leaders, Misplaced Certainty, and War in U.S. Foreign Policy

Open to the Public

Does greater certainty about an opponent's military and political characteristics cause conflict or peace? This seminar offers a theory of (1) when presidents and advisors are most likely to make estimation errors that result in misplaced certainty and (2) how such errors are a cause of conflict. Evidence is drawn from prominent cases in U.S. foreign policy.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

Date: Time: - Location: Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369
U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) and Henry Kissinger, National Security Adviser and Secretary of State, at the White House, October 1, 1973.

About

Does greater certainty about an opponent's military and political characteristics cause conflict or peace? This seminar offers a theory of (1) when presidents and advisors are most likely to make estimation errors that result in misplaced certainty and (2) how such errors are a cause of conflict. Evidence is drawn from prominent cases in U.S. foreign policy.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

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