Arms Control Under Uncertainty: Leadership Change and the INF Treaty

Open to the Public

While many scholars and practitioners believe that stability is good for cooperation, in this MTA seminar Jane Vayman of the George Washington University Institute for Security and Conflict Studies will argue that international agreements to limit military capabilities are actually more likely to occur during times of new uncertainty about the adversary. The case of the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty between the US and USSR demonstrates the effect of domestic political shifts on beliefs and the resultant opportunities for cooperation with high level monitoring and intrusiveness. To extend the argument, Vaynman will explore how domestic volatility created uncertainty between Egypt and Israel in the lead-up to the 1979 Peace Treaty, India and Pakistan in negotiations on the 1999 Lahore Declaration, and the U.S. and Iran in the recent deal on Iran's nuclear program.

Date: Wed, Nov 18, 2015 Time: 10:00am - 11:30am Location: Littauer Building - Fainsod Room, 324

Arms Control Under Uncertainty: Leadership Change and the INF Treaty

While many scholars and practitioners believe that stability is good for cooperation, in this MTA seminar Jane Vayman of the George Washington University Institute for Security and Conflict Studies will argue that international agreements to limit military capabilities are actually more likely to occur during times of new uncertainty about the adversary. The case of the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty between the US and USSR demonstrates the effect of domestic political shifts on beliefs and the resultant opportunities for cooperation with high level monitoring and intrusiveness. To extend the arguement, Vaynman will explore how domestic volatility created uncertainty between Egypt and Israel in the lead-up to the 1979 Peace Treaty, India and Pakistan in negotiations on the 1999 Lahore Declaration, and the U.S. and Iran in the recent deal on Iran's nuclear program.