Belfer Center at IDEASpHERE

Belfer Center Speakers

Challenges to U.S. Global Leadership

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE panel "Challenges to U.S. Global Leadership" with Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, David Gergen, David Ignatius, and Meghan O’Sullivan.

Summary

David Ignatius, Washington Post columnist and Belfer Center senior fellow, led off by saying that he was sympathetic to President Obama considering the foreign policy challenges he has faced, but suggested that under his leadership the U.S. has suffered reputational damage.

Belfer Center Director Graham Allison highlighted China’s phenomenal rise and warned of the danger of U.S.-China relations falling into the Thucydides trap, when tensions between a rising power and an existing power lead to conflict.

Meghan O’Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center's Geopolitics of Energy Project, shared a more positive perspective, noting that in the last seven years technological advances in the oil and gas industries have dramatically changed America’s energy outlook. Whereas strategists once considered energy an Achilles heel for America, O’Sullivan said, energy is now seen as a source of strategic strength.

David Gergen, co-director of Harvard Kennedy School's Center for Public Leadership, tied together foreign policy and domestic politics. Presidents traditionally focus on foreign policy in the last three years of their second term, Gergen said, but President Obama is at risk of becoming a lame-duck President.

Nicholas Burns, director of the Belfer Center's Future of Diplomacy Project, moderated the panel and commented that U.S. diplomatic efforts are buoyed by the threat of U.S. military might.

Winning the Peace

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE panel "Winning the Peace," with Graham Allison, Ashton B. Carter, Gary Samore, Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, Amos Yadlin, and Robert Zoellick

Summary

The last seven decades without war among the great powers – what historians describe as “the long peace” – is a remarkable achievement. “This is a rare and unusual fact if you look at the last few thousand years of history,” said Graham Allison, director of the Belfer Center and moderator of the IDEASpHERE panel “Winning the Peace.” “Furthermore, it is no accident. Wise choices by statesmen have contributed to ‘the long peace,’ which has allowed many generations to live their lives.”

“Winning the Peace” featured a 'who’s who' of American and Israeli security professionals. They addressed the various policies that have contributed to great-power peace and predicted what kinds of security challenges would define the 21^st century.

Former Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter argued that peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific is the result of American military power.

Belfer Center Executive Director for Research Gary Samore said that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is “one of the most important security challenges we face” and elucidated policy prescriptions to achieve that end.

Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, the White House Coordinator for Defense Policy, Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Arms Control, lauded the Kennedy School for contributing actionable scholarship that has made the world safer.

Former Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin’s primary concern for the future is miscalculation: “There was a hotline between Washington and the Kremlin. There is no communication between Jerusalem and Tehran.”

Former World Bank President Robert Zoellick came full circle by returning to the Asia-Pacific: US policy vis-à-vis China will be “tough” because it is a balancing act between hedging and integration.

Why Does Government Not Work? Winning Back the Trust

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE discussion “Why Does Government Not Work? Winning Back the Trust,” with Ashton B. Carter

Summary

Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter told a Harvard Kennedy School “IDEASpHERE” session May 15 that the botched rollout of HealthCare.gov struck a nerve with the American people because it fed a growing fear that the federal government is incompetent. The public, Carter said, worries that Washington can’t execute – so why should they trust the government to do big things?

A major problem, he said, is that government does a poor job of promoting managerial competence. Using stories from his own tenure at the Pentagon, Secretary Carter explained the importance of “domain mastery” – something that was essential to building 253 bases in Afghanistan, a country with no concrete facilities, in the summer of 2010.

As the Pentagon’s COO responsible for $600 billion in annual spending, including $400 billion in contracts, Secretary Carter said his most important job was to defend the integrity of the procurement and contracting process.

Lamenting that Washington didn’t fully embrace a “win now” attitude, he did offer reasons for hope that government can win back our trust, including sharing several accounts of how a government agency had saved millions of dollars – the kind of good-news stories rarely covered by the press.

America's Unconventional Energy Boom and How It Is Changing the Way the World Works

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE discussion “America’s Unconventional Energy Boom and How It Is Changing the Way the World Works,” with Meghan O’Sullivan and Holly Morrow

Summary

Geopolitics of Energy Director Meghan O’Sullivan joined Geopolitics of Energy Fellow Holly Morrow for an IDEASpHERE event titled “America’s Unconventional Energy Boom and How It Is Changing the Way the World Works.”

Their discussion centered on America's recent access to new technology and sources of energy—dubbed the “unconventional energy revolution”— and its impact international politics.

According to O’Sullivan, the technological revolution brought on by the marrying of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling into a process known as fracking, has given the U.S. a viable and economic way to tap into previously inaccessible sources of shale oil and natural gas.

Morrow identified China as the United States’ main contender in this unconventional revolution. She noted, however, that the make-up of its large state-owned energy companies will make it difficult to emulate the industry structure attained by smaller, innovative American firms.

O’Sullivan and Morrow agreed that while access to new sources of energy may allow the U.S. more leverage on the world stage, market forces will not allow it to completely bypass issues such as involvement in the Middle East, where instability can still affect global energy prices. Similarly, the price differential will not make it easy to wean Europe off cheap Russian natural gas.

An Interview with Larry Summers on Growth and Prosperity

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE plenary event “An Interview with Lawrence Summers on Growth and Prosperity,” with Zanny Minton Beddoes and Larry Summers

Summary

From a macroeconomic point of view, the United States is facing three broad challenges in the global economy, Harvard University President Emeritus Lawrence Summers said during a Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE plenary discussion on “Growth and Prosperity.”

In a discussion with Zanny Minton Beddoes, the economics editor of The Economist and a Harvard Kennedy School alumna, Summers said the three challenges are:

• Achieving adequate demand for reasonable rates of growth while preventing  unemployment.

• Rising inequality and availability of jobs for all in a world where machines and technology are able to do more and more.

• Making government work effectively and sustainably to support our society.

The U.S. is definitely better off than it was six years ago, Summers said, but there are serious problems. He noted that after World War II, America built significant highways and other infrastructure, developed suburbs, equipped households, and created all kinds of businesses.

“Things like that could happen again,” Summers said, “but we’re going the other way” in many areas including infrastructure and optimism.

Summers said inequality, which he considers a “missed opportunity,” is a “critically important problem.” Taxes are one of the issues, he said, adding that there is too much of a growing gap between the small number of the wealthiest Americans and the majority of people in the country. We need to focus on building up our middle class, Summers said.

A Revolution in Politics? Social Media in China, Egypt, and the US

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE panel “A Revolution in Politics? Social Media in China, Egypt, and the U.S.,” with Archon Fung, Tarek Masoud, and Tony Saich

Summary

How and to what degree digital technologies are transforming politics was the unifying theme of a discussion among Tony Saich, director of the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation,Tarek Masoud, associate professor of public policy, and Archon Fung, Ford Foundation Professor of  Democracy and Citizenship, at their Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE session, “A Revolution in Politics? Social Media in China, Egypt, and the U.S.”

Citing examples such as the outbreak of the deadly SARS disease and a bridge that had collapsed due to infrastructure issues, Saich demonstrated how Chinese citizens are utilizing digital technology to broadcast events the government attempted to conceal.  Though the Chinese regime is adjusting better than expected to the influence of new media, Saich said it is still trying to move the horizontal flow of information toward a vertical dissemination.

Tarek Masoud, who has been working with collaborators to test whether the Arab Spring was catalyzed by social media, said they are trying to determine, for example, whether increased Twitter activity in certain areas can be used to predict protests or identify them after they've happened. So far, he said, there is little evidence to support the idea that social media propels protests. In most cases, Masoud said, it is the most organized forces that generally triumph; in countries like Egypt, that means those who can deploy "real" social networks rather than "virtual" ones.

Archon Fung discussed how technology intersects with real world politics. His “Six Models for the Politics and Internet” include: the empowered public sphere; displacement of traditional organizations by new digitally self-organized groups; digitally direct democracy; truth-based advocacy; constituent mobilization; and crowd-sourced social monitoring.

Follies and Fiascoes: Why Does U.S. Foreign Policy Keep Failing?

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE presentation “Follies and Fiascoes: Why Does U.S. Foreign Policy Keep Failing?,” with Stephen Walt

Summary

If the United States had a “perfect system” for conducting foreign policy, we would still have challenges, said Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs, during a Harvard Kennedy School “IDEASpHERE” session titled “Follies and Fiascoes: Why Does U.S. Foreign Policy Keep Failing?”

But, he added, our system “falls short” of perfection and has become worse in recent years.

Arguing that U.S. foreign policy has gone downhill since the Cold War, Walt’s examples included: the deteriorating relationship with Russia; the Iraq invasion; increase in nuclear weapons in North Korea, India, and Pakistan; and a lower level of freedom throughout the world.

One of the reasons for the “dysfunctional” foreign policy system, Walt argued, is the influence of the very large and powerful foreign policy “community” that includes government, think tanks, interest groups, lobbies, academia, and media. Having a positive reputation within this community means “staying within a certain realm regarding foreign policy.” Because this community is more supportive of global advocacy than the American people at large, it has to bring around the public to its views, and that includes exaggerating dangers.  The reason the community has to “exaggerate” those dangers is because the U.S. is so secure, Walt believes.

Ironically, Walt added, “We’re in such good shape overall that it might not matter” that our foreign policy fails so often.  It’s important, though, not to make “too many mistakes.”

Harnessing Market Forces to Protect the Climate

May 15, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE discussion "Harnessing Market Forces to Protect the Climate," with Robert Stavins and Rohini Pande

Summary

Economics are an essential part of understanding climate change and for developing solutions to it.Robert Stavins, director of the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, and Professor of Public PolicyRohini Pande focused on that idea at a Harvard Kennedy School "IDEASpHERE" event titled "Harnessing Market Forces to Protect the Climate."

Climate change is a global problem, said Robert Stavins, adding that international cooperation is essential in dealing with its causes and consequences.

Rohini Pande agreed, discussing her work with the Kennedy School to implement solutions to poor environmental regulation in India, where incentives for regulators are misaligned.

Robert Stavins turned the conversation to the United States, where cap-and-trade policies are in place in certain regions, to discuss market successes and failures in emissions policy. He noted that some carbon pricing policies can be complementary with climate change policies.

Rohini Pande concluded the conversation by talking about why emissions trading schemes have not taking off in emerging economies, and the resulting consequences. She discussed how market systems can be put in place to lead the way for further emissions reduction and climate change policies in emerging economies.

Innovation and Prosperity: Public Policy in the Age of Technological Abundance

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE discussion “Public Policy in the Age of Technological Abundance," with Calestous Juma

Summary

When Olafur Eliasson and Frederik Ottesen first developed Little Sun – a small solar-powered lamp costing $5 – they had no idea that in addition to providing light, their product also had the potential to raise student performance levels 40 percent by allowing students to study longer and later into the night.  Speaking at Harvard Kennedy School’s IDEASpHERE, Calestous Juma, director of the Belfer Center's Science, Technology, and Globalization Project, cited Little Sun as an example of a small technological advancement that has had an outsized impact on social welfare.

In his presentation “Innovation and Prosperity: Public Policy in the Age of Technological Abundance,” Juma emphasized the positive and transformative role that rapid technological advancements have had in the developing world.

Juma said that in addition to providing quantifiable improvements in living and education standards, the information communication technology (ICT) revolution has also changed the nature of the conversation about development – from confronting scarcity to harnessing knowledge and information.

Without leaders who are capable of understanding technological advancement and its implications, and who are able to work with the private sector in implementing them, Juma said that development initiatives are bound to fail. However, those that are capable of such forward thinking can create lasting improvements in human development, agricultural production, and economic activity.

Sustainable Growth and Shared Prosperity

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE discussion “Sustainable Growth and Shared Prosperity,” with Kenneth Rogoff and Lawrence Summers

Summary

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers joined economics professors Jeffrey Frankel andKenneth Rogoff for an IDEASpHERE discussion on “Sustainable Growth and Shared Prosperity.”

The three economists engaged in an exchange of ideas on how to promote inclusive prosperity in the U.S., which touched on a variety of topics like taxes, education, and the influence of money on politics.

Noting the present need for people to more frequently reinvent themselves to remain competitive in the job market, Rogoff stressed the need for expanding education opportunities for adults.

Frankel emphasized the need to promote policies that would reduce inequality while not hurting growth. As examples, he included universal preschool education, a return to previous enforcement of the estate tax, and expanding earned income tax credits.

Throughout the event, which included several questions from attendees, Summers delved into some of the nuances and distortions surrounding money in politics and economic policy, while affirming that he ultimately wished to see “a society where low-income people see incomes grow as rapidly as possible.”

Sustainable Prosperity on a Crowded Planet

May 16, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE discussion “Sustainable Prosperity on a Crowded Planet,” with William Clark

Summary

Released to the public in early May, the 2014 National Climate Assessment has brought to light some of the greatest and most dismaying threats to humanity. In his Harvard Kennedy School “IDEASpHERE” session titled “Sustainable Prosperity on a Crowded Planet,” William Clark, co-director of Harvard's Sustainability Science program, talked about these threats, possible solutions, and re-thinking how we approach the topic of sustainability.

The most present threats to our natural environment, according to Clark, are climate change, a collapse of biodiversity, and widespread toxins.

“If these are the threats, what is a sensible person to do?” Clark asked the audience at Harvard Kennedy School. “The answer is to re-think the world we live in.”

Clark discussed the idea of “inclusive wealth,” an alternative to traditional measures of sustainability which includes not just natural, human, and physical capital, but also measures of social and knowledge capital. For example, to increase across-the-board sustainability, it is important to invest in education, healthcare, and strong government institutions as well as traditional goals like fossil-fuel cuts.

Should We Fear a Cyber Pearl Harbor or 9/11?

May 15, 2014

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE panel “Should We Fear a Cyber Pearl Harbor or 9/11?,” with Alexander Klimburg and Joseph Nye

Summary

While some in government have sounded alarm bells over the prospect over a cyber Pearl Harbor or 9/11, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor Joseph S. Nye and Alexander Klimburg, research fellow with the Belfer Center's Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and Cyber Project, reject this claim - at least in the near-term.  In their presentation, "Should We Fear a Cyber Pearl Harbor or 9/11?,” during Harvard Kennedy School's IDEASpHERE, both Nye and Klimburg pointed to the myriad of obstacles that would-be cyber attackers would have to surmount to carry out such an attack, but cautioned that cyber threats do exist and that they are growing daily.

Nye cited the 2010 Stuxnet attack, which destroyed thousands of Iranian centrifuges, as a case-in-point of what terrorists cannot do. Stuxnet required coordination across three diverse fields—network, supply chain, and human—and required the type of planning which is outside of the capabilities of known terrorist groups.

The most important issues around cybersecurity and cyber-terrorism are the questions to which answers do not exist or are unclear, Nye said. What role does deterrence play in cyber security? What secondary uses are there for cyber weapons? How are attacks attributed and how does attribution affect policy responses?

Klimburg's remarks focused on the technical aspects of cyber security and the diffusion of cyber capabilities to greater numbers of people and actors. Pointing to the massive growth in computing power and applications in recent years, Klimburg warned that many more loopholes exist today for attackers to exploit, as do weapons to use in such an attack. This has made defending against them much more difficult.

The Fed and Emerging Markets: Another Crash?

Takeaways from the Harvard Kennedy School IDEASpHERE panel “The Fed and Emerging Markets: Another Crash?,” with Jeffrey Frankel, Carmen Reinhart, and Robert Zoellick

Summary

After years of extraordinary measures by the Federal Reserve in the aftermath of the Great Recession, emerging markets appear to have weathered the disruption fairly well but are facing new headwinds as economic growth falls short of expectations. That was the sobering assessment of three experts on the global economy at a panel titled “The Fed and Emerging Markets: Another Crash?” held at Harvard Kennedy School’s “IDEASpHERE” on May 15, 2014.

Harvard Kennedy School Professor Jeffrey Frankel began the session with a brief history of capital flows to emerging markets. He discussed the role of U.S. monetary policy in these flows and suggested three early-warning indicators: 1) foreign exchange reserves; 2) currency overvaluation; and 3) current-account deficits.

Carmen Reinhart, a Harvard Kennedy School professor and co-author of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” pointed out that emerging markets weathered the global financial crisis reasonably well because past crises have made them “lean and mean.” The biggest risk to emerging markets, she said, is economic slowdown, particularly with China.

Former World Bank president Robert Zoellick agreed that there are signs of a downdraft for emerging markets. He said that earnings will have the last word, and that the sooner the US economy grows, the better off the world will be.