Some of the most brutal and long-lasting civil wars of our times are associated with the rapid formation and disintegration of alliances among warring groups as well as fragmentation within them. The resulting multiplicity of actors has paralyzed outsiders, who have often been unable to even follow the unraveling of the conflict's complex trajectory. This presentation attempts to enhance our understanding of civil war processes by looking at how groups align and the variables that shape their choices. Drawing on primary data from the case of Afghanistan, it suggests that alliances are tactical, motivated by a concern with victory and the capture of spoils. Groups rapidly and seemingly incessantly change partners, and no identity principles— ethnic, ideological, or otherwise—generate stable cleavages. In principle, all groups want to be in a coalition large enough to attain victory, while small enough to ensure large per capita payoffs. But in practice, this outcome proves difficult to secure. Given the multitude of players, their objectives, and their instrumental calculus, all coalitions appear to be dominated: a larger share of the spoils can be gained by joining a different alliance. The result is a process of constant defection, alliance reconfiguration, and even group fractionalization. Stability is only attained when an external arbiter can enforce cooperation.
Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.
