Counterforce and Strategic Stability: Mapping the Debate

Dr. Brad Roberts’ talk centers on a recently released report by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which examines the risks and benefits of counterforce strategy in U.S. nuclear policy. His remarks will explore how technological advances in precision strike, surveillance, and artificial intelligence are reshaping deterrence dynamics and raising new questions about strategic stability, escalation risks, and arms control. The discussion situates contemporary U.S. counterforce thinking within the broader context of great-power competition, assessing whether the pursuit of disarming capabilities enhances security or undermines it in an era of renewed nuclear modernization.