Differential Population Dynamics, Inequality, and Political Violence in India

About

Certain forms of demographic change have been claimed to render states more susceptible to political violence. This project addresses the interaction of two such processes, age structure transitions leading to large "youth bulges," and differential population growth between religious and ethnic groups. While previous works have indicated that both youth bulges and differential growth rates affect low-intensity conflict risks, this study asks whether cycles of violence follow peaks in age structure transitions within religious and ethnic groups as suggested by Samuel P. Huntington. An analysis of cross-regional, time-series violence data for Indian states serves as the empirical illustration, testing whether differential demographic dynamics may contribute to explain trends in violence. It is further addressed how the impacts of demography on conflict may be conditioned by levels of vertical and horizontal (i.e. inter-group) inequalities, and by levels of education. The study uses Indian census and survey data, including newly developed inequality measures based on individual-level survey data, and age- and gender-specific educational attainment data for religious groups.

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