The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
Speakers: Michael Weintraub, Associate Professor, Universidad de los Andes Bogotá, Colombia; Robert A. Blair, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University
Governments across the developing world rely on the armed forces for domestic policing operations. Advocates of these "mano dura" (iron fist) policies view them as a necessary measure to control violent crime, while detractors claim they undermine human rights without reducing crime. The speakers experimentally evaluate a militarized policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, the country's third largest city and among its most violent.
Using administrative crime and human rights data, original household surveys, a conjoint survey experiment, and costly behavioral measurements, they evaluate these patrols, which they randomly assigned at the block level. They did find suggestive evidence of crime reduction, but only on days and at times when soldiers were physically present on the streets. Despite weak or null effects on crime, the speakers find strong evidence of increased demand for military involvement in policing, which was accompanied by illiberal values such as increased support for coups. They find some evidence of increased human rights abuses, although these were committed police officers rather than soldiers, and the results are not consistent across their data sources.
While the speakers observe no change in actual crime victimization following intervention, they observe a large, significant, and lasting increase in citizens' reports of witnessing crime and a correspondingly large, significant, and lasting increase in citizens' willingness to report crimes to authorities (both military and police). Given the null effects on actual crime, they interpret this as evidence of increased vigilance by citizens—and co-production of security not just between the military and the police, but between civilians and authorities.
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