The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and
the Consortium for Energy Policy Research
present
The Geopolitics of Energy Seminar Series
Today’s policy and academic discussions about energy focus on the need to reduce consumption and to shift to alternative, renewable fuel sources. While such moves are critical components of any strategy to address both global warming and energy security, the United States and other large consumer countries will remain dependent on fossil fuels for years – even decades – to come. Access to such resources is increasingly complicated, with political factors topping the list of constraints.
The Obama Administration comes into office determined to change American attitudes to energy and better align U.S. foreign policy and energy policy. This welcome effort needs to acknowledge the reality of continued reliance on fossil fuels in the short and medium term – and factor it into the broader formulation of American strategy. This energy-inspired evolution of grand strategy is already underway in great and middle powers around the world. Some countries are infusing energy into their grand strategies; China’s “mercantilist” foreign policy is arguably foremost about securing energy needs. Other countries, such those in Europe, are also dealing with the geopolitical ramifications of their energy arrangements. Meanwhile, Gulf states are calculating how best to use their finite resources and are planning transitions to other types of economies.
This seminar series will host distinguished speakers and experts to discuss the most pressing issues at the intersection of geopolitics and energy. These guests will focus on how great and middle powers are shaping their grand strategies in light of their assumptions about future energy supplies and demand. What are the assumptions about energy held by various countries or regions? How are such energy perceptions shaping the way in which big consumer countries craft their political, economic, and military interactions with the world? How are such assumptions driving the domestic growth strategies of big producer countries – and their efforts to establish alliances and relationships? The seminars will also consider the reverse: how geopolitical realities are influencing energy strategies. To what extent are geopolitics influencing the pace and character of the shift to alternative energy sources? How real or prevalent is the use of energy resources for political ends?
Understanding how energy shapes the grand strategies of China, Russia, India, Europe, Saudi Arabia, and others is vital in mapping out the contours of the future global order. These seminars will be the basis for identifying possible new nodes of international conflict and cooperation, and deficiencies in existing international structures. The seminars will also draw attention to geopolitical problems that could arise as the United States and other countries make energy more central in their plans, as well as well as highlight the geopolitical implications of possible shifts away from fossil fuels.