The Hedge Between: Nuclear Latency, Military Security, and Interstate Bargaining

How do latent nuclear capabilities in the form of enrichment and reprocessing facilities affect interstate deterrence and coercion? Recent scholarship suggests that latency creates a “virtual” nuclear capability that can be used to deter threats or extract concessions, but these findings run counter to research demonstrating that states cannot deter without at least a deliverable nuclear device. This presentation aims to investigate this puzzling inconsistency by employing statistical analysis on an expanded dataset of latency measures and a variety of both military and bargaining outcomes.