Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond

About

Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines the puzzle of why surprise attacks so often succeed, even though in most cases warnings had been available beforehand. Author Erik Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about these intelligence failures, which holds that attacks succeed because warning signals get lost amid noise and intelligence officials lack the imagination to "connect the dots" of available information. By comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but rather the collection of precise intelligence, combined with the presence of decision makers who will listen to the warnings they receive.

The book offers a new understanding of classic cases such as Pearl Harbor and the Battle of Midway and provides the most comprehensive analysis available of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks. It is especially timely today, when national security officials warn not only of the threat of terrorist attacks, but also about other kinds of strategic surprise and the risk that a future cyber attack could be the "next Pearl Harbor."

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