Land Grabs and the Evolution of Territorial Conquest

About

Territorial conquest once went hand in hand with warfare, but no longer. In aggregate, conquest has declined dramatically. Yet, as Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea evinces, a particular form of conquest—land grabs seizing only a limited part of another state's territory—continues to occur. Using newly-compiled data on 105 land grabs since 1918, this seminar explores the conditions under which land grabs are likely to occur and likely to lead to war. Conceptualizing land grabs as the crisis tactic of the fait accompli, the seminar develops a theory explaining why "gray areas" apart from core territory are especially vulnerable to them. The speaker finds that states can more often seize gray areas without provoking war and, consequently, are more likely to seize them. These results contribute to understanding the evolution of territorial conquest. Attempts to conquer entire states declined immediately after 1945. Land grabs seizing pieces of core territory, which frequently provoke wars, persisted before declining in the 1980s. Land grabs seizing gray areas— places like the Spratly and Senkaku Islands—continue to this day and are now the modern form of territorial conquest. These land grabs often provoke crises but only rarely lead to war.

Optional reading for this seminar: http://www.danielwaltman.com/uploads/3/2/3/1/32312379/land_grabs_causes_and_consequences.pdf

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.