Merits of Uncertainty: The Evolution and Future of China’s Nuclear Retaliatory Capability

Name: Merits of Uncertainty: The Evolution and Future of China’s Nuclear Retaliatory Capability
Start: 2018-09-12T10:00:00-0400
End: 2018-09-12T11:30:00-0400

Open to the Public

Speaker: Wu Riqiang, Research Fellow with the International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom A simplified nuclear exchange model will be developed to evaluate China’s past and current nuclear retaliatory capability against the Soviet Union and the United States. The modeling suggests that according to Western standards, China’s nuclear retaliation has been and remains far from “assured.” This result reflects China’s special nuclear philosophy, which emphasizes the role of nuclear taboo and prioritizes political control over survivability. However, in the face of U.S. advances in the areas of counterforce and missile defense, China probably has to continue to improve its nuclear forces qualitatively and, if necessary, quantitatively, in order to maintain its deterrent level.

Date: Wed, Sep 12, 2018 Time: 10:00am - 11:30am Location: Littauer Building - Fainsod Room, 324

Military vehicles carry DF-5B intercontinental ballistic missiles during a parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of Japan's surrender during World War II held in front of Tiananmen Gate in Beijing, Sept. 3, 2015.

A simplified nuclear exchange model will be developed to evaluate China’s past and current nuclear retaliatory capability against the Soviet Union and the United States. The modeling suggests that according to Western standards, China’s nuclear retaliation has been and remains far from “assured.” This result reflects China’s special nuclear philosophy, which emphasizes the role of nuclear taboo and prioritizes political control over survivability. However, in the face of U.S. advances in the areas of counterforce and missile defense, China probably has to continue to improve its nuclear forces qualitatively and, if necessary, quantitatively, in order to maintain its deterrent level.

Wu Riqiang is a joint Research Fellow with the International Security Program and the Project on Managing the Atom. He is an Associate Professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China. He received his Ph.D. in political science from Tsinghua University in 2012. Before that, he worked for six years at the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation as a missile engineer. He holds a M.Sc. and B.E., both from Harbin Institute of Technology. His research combines the technical and political aspects of arms control issues, such as missile defense, China-U.S. strategic stability, and crisis escalation.