Upload Pending? Assessing U.S. Responses to China's Nuclear Modernization

How does China’s nuclear modernization affect U.S. nuclear strategy? Since the revelation that China was building hundreds of new missile silos, much debate has focused on why China is expanding its nuclear arsenal and how the United States should respond to that expansion. A deeper examination of how China’s nuclear modernization is affecting U.S. nuclear strategy sheds light on both questions. I argue that the number and deployment pattern of China’s new ICBM silos present a “sponge” and an “area fratricide” problem. When considered in conjunction with its larger military modernization, China’s mobile ICBM’s and integrated air defense system (IADS) present the United States with a “persistent ISR” problem. This is making it more difficult for the United States to limit damage to itself in a nuclear exchange by attacking China’s nuclear forces. My assessment gives support to those who argue that China is trying to increase the survivability of its strategic nuclear forces and counter possible nuclear coercion in a conflict with the United States over Taiwan. It also shows that uploading more warheads onto existing U.S. platforms is only a partial solution, and other responses are likely to be more productive.