Analysis: End of Emergency Rule Unlikely to Resolve Pakistan's Problems

Withdrawal of the emergency rule by President Pervez Musharraf, though a positive development in principle, is unlikely to resolve the problems faced by Pakistan today. Media's wings were clipped, and independence of judiciary was demolished during the 42 day emergency. Consequently, there are no strong and independent institutions in the country to effectively judge whether the coming elections on January 8 2008 will be free and fair. In a country where those who lose elections instinctively blame it on rigging (in many cases rightly so), and where divisions in the society are entrenched, these elections can open up a Pandora's box of political grievances, unmet expectations, ethnic rivalries and people's disenchantment with the system.

Pakistan is divided today between those who want to participate in the elections thereby indirectly giving legitimacy to Musharraf's actions in the last few months, and others (mostly journalists, lawyers and progressive civil society actors) who are asking political parties and public to boycott the elections to deny legitimacy to Musharraf's controversial actions. Many leading English and Urdu language newspapers in Pakistan in the recent days have predicted that the expected state support (in the shape of rigging and manipulation) in favor of certain political parties will exacerbate the crisis in the country.

Musharraf so far has been somewhat successful in bringing the major political parties on board in terms of their agreement to participate in the upcoming elections. The real test, however, will be the voter participation on January 8, 2008. Anything below 35-40% (in terms of percentage of eligible voters' participation), which is the average in the last 5 elections, will be a blow to the credibility of the whole process.