Update & Analysis: Musharraf Ends Emergency Rule

As promised, on Saturday President Musharraf ended the emergency rule that he had imposed on November 3. However, while the emergency has been removed, many of the associated regulations remain. The judges who had been deposed in early November are now being retired and have been replaced by others more amenable to President Musharraf's rule. While the media is still ostensibly free and fair, they have been required to sign a "code of conduct" without which they are kept off air. This code ensures that support or at least silence regarding President Musharraf's actions remains and that one of the main independent news sources is still off-line.

The two major secular parties, the PPP and the PML-N, have agreed to contest the January 8 elections. However, the leader of the PML-N, Nawaz Sharif, is not being permitted to run. And, President Musharraf has yet to announce whether Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the PPP, will be allowed, if she wins, to rule for a third term (the Constitution currently doesn't allow it). In addition to this, there have been allegations of unfair play already, from setting up fake voting booths, to disseminating completed ballots (for President Musharraf's PML-Q party), to unequitable support by the media.

Recent polling by the International Polling Institute (IRI) indicates some interesting results; numbers that will not please President Musharraf and thus make it more likely that he will try to "manage" the process. According to their poll, conducted in late November, 66-75% of those asked expressed anger at the current state of affairs, desired change, and were anti-Musharraf. Benazir Bhutto was the most favored of the three leaders, followed by Nawaz Sharif and only then President Musharraf. Support for their respective parties also tracked this line with the PPP getting 30% of the national sample of votes, PML-N 25%, and PML-Q close behind with 23%. The religious coalition, the MMA, only received 4% of the vote.

So, despite the removal of the emergency, it is very unclear whether the elections will be held in a manner that could truly be described as free or fair. In large part, the onus is on the international community to continue to exert pressure on President Musharraf to continue his current trend towards a more democratic process. Evidence is strong that the pressure thus far is having an impact.