Bad World: The Negativity Bias in International Politics

READ FULL ARTICLE

Published: Winter 2018/19

Author
Dominic D.P. Johnson

Author
Dominic Tierney

A man dressed in a WWI uniform takes part in a reconstruction of the WWI battle of Verdun, at 'Fort de Douaumont', Saturday, Aug. 25, 2018 in Verdun, eastern France. Hundreds of volunteers from 18 countries gathered in the French town Verdun as part of a string of events to mark the centenary of the end of World War One.

Summary

Bad news has a greater influence on judgment and decisionmaking than good news as a result of a subconscious “negativity bias” identified in psychology. In international relations, the bias underlies three key stages of conflict: actors will exaggerate threats, gamble against loss, and remember past failure more readily than any success. An examination of Germany’s actions in World I reveals manifestations of this overarching bias. Decisionmakers need to be aware of the negativity bias and guard against it.

Recommended citation

Dominic D.P. Johnson and Dominic Tierney, “Bad World: The Negativity Bias in International Politics,” International Security, Vol. 43, No. 3 (Winter 2018/19), pp. 96–140, https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00336.