In a year marked by both hopeful trends and alarming challenges, the Belfer Center’s mission to provide thoughtful, policy-relevant research and insights for a more secure, peaceful world has never been more timely. In 2015, our faculty and fellows delved into critical issues from Iran’s nuclear program, China’s rise, and Russian relations to violent extremism, climate talks, U.S. leadership, and economic growth. Whether in books, reports, testimony, commentary, or multimedia, see the ways our experts responded to a world in need of impactful ideas:
Video Gallery
The Iran Nuclear Deal
If Iran complies, the JCPOA buys at least 10 to 15 years before Tehran can significantly expand its nuclear capabilities. If Iran cheats during this period, JCPOA monitoring and national intelligence are likely to detect major violations, which would enhance U.S. and international options to intensify sanctions and take military action if necessary.
- The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Definitive Guide
Gary Samore, editor - Decoding the Iran Nuclear Deal
Gary Samore, editor - 9 Reasons to Support the Iran Deal
Graham Allison - Iran and the Arab World After the Nuclear Deal
Payam Mohseni, editor - The Iranian Nuclear-Inspection Charade
William H. Tobey - Proliferation Alert! The IAEA and Non-Compliance Reporting
Trevor Findlay - The Energy Implications of a Nuclear Deal Between the P5+1 and Iran
Meghan O’Sullivan - The Implications of Sanctions Relief Under the Iran Agreement
Nicholas Burns - The Iran Nuclear Deal and its Impact on Terrorism Financing
Olli Heinonen - A Good Deal for Israel
Chuck Freilich - A Saudi Nuclear Weapon?
Nawaf Obaid
U.S.-China Relations
The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap.
"The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?"
- U.S.-China 21: The Future of U.S. China Relations Under Xi Jinping
Kevin Rudd - Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China
Robert Blackwill - The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?
American Leadership
In researching the life and times of Henry Kissinger, I have come to realize that … I had missed the crucial importance in American foreign policy of the history deficit: the fact that key decision-makers know almost nothing not just of other countries’ pasts, but also of their own.
- Belfer Center Conversation with Secretary of State John Kerry
- A Conversation with Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter
- Conversations with former Secretaries of State Albright and Powell
- Kissinger: Volume 1: The Idealist 1923-1968
Niall Ferguson - Is the American Century Over?
Joseph S. Nye
Photo Gallery
Energy and Climate
Taken together, the lessons from thirty years of experience suggest that cap-and-trade merits serious consideration when regions, nations, or sub-national jurisdictions seek to develop policies to reduce GHG emissions. And, indeed, this has happened.
"Lessons Learned from Three Decades of Experience with Cap-and-Trade"
- At last, global fretting on climate change
Robert Stavins - Securing America's Future: Realizing the Potential of the DOE National Laboratories
Narayanamurti, Venkatesh, Laura Diaz Anadon, Gabe Chan, and Amitai Y. Bin-Nun - Lessons Learned from Three Decades of Experience with Cap-and-Trade
Richard Schmalensee and Robert Stavins - Evaluating Mitigation Effort: Tools and Institutions for Assessing Nationally Determined Contributions
Joseph Aldy - What's the Right Temperature for the Earth? Andy Parker and David Keith
Fighting Terror and Violent Extremism
Tackle extremist ideology inventively and experimentally, and we make possible a more comprehensive and durable solution. We shouldn’t underestimate what we can achieve by applying technology and know-how from multiple sectors, including business.
- The Great War of Our Time
Michael Morell - Building Dumbledore’s Army to fight ISIS
Farah Pandith - Heretic: Why Islam Needs A Reformation Now
Ayaan Hirsi Ali - Paris and the fall of Rome
Niall Ferguson - Engage Muslim Millennials
Farah Pandith - Are vicious Islamists expanding? Is that the real issue?
Rami Khouri - Europe Must Deal With the Breeding of Terrorism Within Its Borders
Kelly M.Greenhill
U.S.-Russia Relations
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Russia was on its knees...it was not surprising that Western leaders became accustomed to ignoring Russian perspectives. But since Vladimir Putin took over in 1999, he has led a recovery of Russia’s sense of itself as a great power.
- Russia and America: Stumbling to War
Graham Allison and Dimitri K. Simes. - NATO and Russia Must Reopen Contact to Keep the Cold War Cold.
Kevin Ryan - U.S. and Russia Share a Vital Interest in Countering Terrorism
Simon Saradzhyan
Refugee and Humanitarian Crises
Although the term ‘refugee’ is also commonly used to refer to people fleeing war, most of those trying to escape violence in Syria and elsewhere are legally not refugees and are ineligible for asylum...
- Five Myths about Refugees and Migrants
Jill Goldenziel - How to Counter Rape During War
Elisabeth Jean Wood and Dara Kay Cohen - CNN Freedom Project: Confronting Modern-Day Slavery
Economic Growth and Innovation
[T]he lion’s share of renewed growth [in North America] springs from dynamism in four key sectors: energy, manufacturing, the life sciences, and information technology....four interlocking revolutions that could make North America the next great emerging market.
- The Next Great Emerging Market?
David Petraeus and Paras Bhayani - The New Harvest: Agricultural Innovation in Africa
Calestous Juma - Taking Root: Global Trends in Agriculture Biotechnology
Calestous Juma and Katherine Gordon - Are US Middle-Class Incomes Really Stagnating?”
Martin Feldstein - The Global Economy is in Serious Danger
Lawrence Summers
Cybersecurity
When President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed cyberweaponry rules of the road at their recent White House news conference, it represented a landmark for a new field.
- The Vulnerability Economy: Zero-Days, Cybersecurity, and Public Policy
Ryan Ellis - The World Needs an Arms-control Treaty for Cybersecurity
Joseph S. Nye
Nuclear Security
In periods of heightened tensions and reduced decision times, the likelihood of human and technical error in control systems increases. Launch-on-warning is a relic of Cold War strategy whose risk today far exceeds its value. Our leaders urgently need to talk and, we hope, agree to scrap this obsolete protocol before a devastating error occurs.
- Don't Weaken Our Defenses Against Nuclear Smuggling
Matthew Bunn, William H. Tobey, and Nickolas Roth - How to Avert a Nuclear War
James Cartwright
Selected Podcasts