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Caspian Studies Program
Black Sea Security Program Ministers of Defense Forum
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
May 2, 2002
Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for International Affairs, and Chair, Caspian Studies Program, Harvard University (moderator)
Victor Bannykh, State Secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for International Cooperation
Victor Gaiciuc, Minister of Defense, Moldova
His Excellency Armen Kirakossian, Ambassador of Armenia to the United States
James Sherr, Oxford University
David Tevzadze, Minister of Defense, Georgia
Sergei Konoplyov, Director, Harvard Black Sea Security Program
From left: Victor Bannykh, Victor Gaiciuc, Arman Kirakossian, David Tevzadze, and Graham Allison. Photo by Martha Stewart
On May 2, the Black Sea Security Program held a public forum at the Kennedy School of Government that featured leading representatives from the governments of Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. This panel was moderated by Graham Allison, chair of the Caspian Studies Program at Harvard.
The Black Sea Security Program, which concluded on May 3, was a ten-day executive seminar that brought delegates from eight countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine) to Harvard's Kennedy School of Government in order to discuss emerging security trends in the Black Sea region. The program targeted key policymakers in these countries, especially those younger military officers, civilian officials, and strategic experts who will be shaping national security policies in the region over the next ten to fifteen years.
Victor Bannykh, state secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, delivered an address on behalf of Ukraine's Minister of Defense Army General Volodimyr Shkidchenko. Bannykh identified several of the military priorities Ukraine hopes to accomplish over the next decade, as the country moves toward NATO membership and cooperates with the campaign against international terrorism. One of the most important of these military objectives is establishing civilian control over the armed forces— a process that should help promote accountability and transparency within the Ukrainian military services. Other goals include improving management of resources in the armed forces, as well as moving away from compulsory military service. Accomplishing these aims should help Ukraine achieve its goal of closer coordination with NATO. The Ukrainian military has already started participating in NATO activities as part of the Partners for Peace (PfP) Program.
Lieutenant-General David Tevzadze, Georgia's minister of defense, offered brief general remarks about the course of globalization and the changes in the international system in the aftermath of September 11. Tevzadze pointed out that globalization has not proceeded at an even pace throughout the world, and the disparities of globalization threaten to create a "new Berlin Wall" between the countries that have benefited from globalization and those who have been left behind.
Armen Kirakossian, Armenia's ambassador to the United States, delivered an address on behalf of Armenian Minister of Defense Serge Sargysyan. He focused his remarks on the security situation in the southern Caucasus. Kirakossian said that relationships between the three countries of the southern Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) form a very important aspect of security in the region. He also indicated that outside powers— including Russia, Turkey, Iran, the European Union, and the United States— will be involved in shaping the future of the region. According to Kirakossian, the Nagorno-Karabagh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan presents the most complex challenge to regional security in the Caucasus. At the same time, however, he was enthusiastic about the progress Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations made in negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh in meetings at Paris and Key West last year.
Armenian-Turkish relations present another stumbling block to stabilization of the security situation in the southern Caucasus. Kirakossian mentioned that countries as diverse as the United States, Iran, and Russia all have positive relations with the countries of the Caucasus, while Turkey still refuses to establish relations with Armenia. According to Kirakossian, the division and distrust between Turkey and Armenia represents "the last corner of the Iron Curtain" that has yet to fall. The ambassador urged the United States to continue promoting initiatives that improve relations between Turkey and Armenia.
Armenia's security policy over the next decade will include three components: continued coordination with its traditional ally Russia, active participation in the NATO Partners for Peace Program, and expanded ties with the United States. All of these arrangements, Kirakossian noted, are designed to promote greater harmony among the countries of the southern Caucasus and to address security threats in the region.
Brigadier General Victor Gaiciuc, Moldova's minister of defense, talked about how Black Sea countries have not had any sort of organization to facilitate regional communication during the past decade. It has been difficult to promote this kind of regional coordination when so many countries— including Moldova— have been preoccupied with internal conflicts during the post-Soviet era. In Moldova's case, dispute over the status of the separatist region of Transdniester has prevented the country from reaching its full economic potential and from establishing more secure borders. According to Gaiciuc, any attempt to resolve the conflict in Transdniester will require greater attention from the international community. Gaiciuc also explained that the general security situation in Moldova is quite complex, especially since there are as many people in Moldova's numerous illegal armed groups as there are in the Moldovan military itself.
Moderator Graham Allison asked the panelists if they felt as though they could point to any ways in which the United States had committed errors in its policy toward the Caucasus during the past decade. While the delegates were reluctant to criticize specific U.S. policies, some of them did bring up issues where they felt the United States could take more initiative— Washington could, for example, devote more attention to improving the prickly relationship between Turkey and Armenia, as well as to addressing the conflict between Moldova and Transdniester.
James Sherr, a visiting professor from Oxford University, offered extended remarks about the militaries of the Black Sea region. He noted that most Black Sea countries inherited fragments of the Soviet military in the early 1990s, and not complete armed forces that were capable of defending national territory. Another challenge facing these countries is that the military is often not the only group with weapons in these societies— border police and security services are also heavily armed, which makes the process of military reform in these countries all the more challenging. Ultimately, Sherr argued, the key issue in the Black Sea region is not that these states face significant threats from external forces, but rather that some of them could be undermined by instability within their own societies.
Summary by John Grennan, Caspian Studies Program