Book Talk Examines Antarctic and Arctic Geostrategic Futures

Once considered "flyover country at the edge of the world," the rapidly warming Arctic, Antarctic, and their associated marine environments are emerging as regions for exploration, exploitation, and extraction - as well as active arenas for geopolitical competition between polar and near-polar states. How that competition plays out will have serious ramifications for environmental, political, economic, and human security and stability around the globe.

On January 26, 2023, the Arctic Initiative hosted a book talk featuring Arctic Initiative Affiliate Douglas Causey and Christian Leuprecht, Class of 1965 Professor in Leadership at the Royal Military College of Canada. Drawing from their new book, Polar Cousins: Comparing Antarctic and Arctic Geostrategic Futures, co-editors Causey and Leuprecht discussed the impacts of geopolitics and climate change on national and international security interests in both polar regions, as well as the lessons learned from the Arctic experience for addressing emerging challenges relating to governance, environmental protection, and maritime operations in the Antarctic.

According to Causey and Leuprecht, the Arctic and Antarctic differ in several key ways: geography, demography, history, and governance regimes. But the impacts of climate change are causing the geopolitical situations at the poles to converge. “From an environmental and ecological standpoint, there has always been an easy comparison between the two regions,” Causey said in a post-talk interview. “Both the Arctic and the Antarctic are warming faster than the global average, and receding sea ice is opening the poles to potential shipping and resource exploitation – fossil fuels and minerals in the Arctic and fisheries in the Antarctic.”

The increased accessibility of the poles is attracting growing interest from opportunistic polar and near-polar states - in particular, Russia and China, who are, in Leuprecht’s words, “becoming harder to play with,” dramatically so since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent stoppage of Arctic Council work.

Historically, the different governance regimes of the two poles – the Arctic Council and the Antarctic Treaty System - “have been very successful at generating a fairly stable geopolitical environment,” said Leuprecht. But while the Arctic Seven and Russia remain at an impasse over the Ukraine crisis, the co-editors consider it an opportune moment for the closely allied “Five Eyes” – the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have polar territorial claims or economic interests – to “lead by example” in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, working as a bloc to develop new governance mechanisms that can anticipate and manage challenges related to changing climatic and environmental conditions. In turn, those mechanisms might eventually ease the situation in the Arctic.

At minimum, Causey hopes that readers, especially social scientists and policymakers, will come away from the book with a better understanding of “how the environment plays a role in what they are doing.” Leuprecht added, “Not paying attention is a very bad plan.”