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The bombings of the American Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania shocked most Americans, but not readers of three recent publications on nuclear, chemical and biological (NBC) weapons terrorism from the Belfer Center.
The major message of this research is that things are likely to get worse - much worse if and when this threat is married to weapons of mass destruction. New evidence suggests that accused terrorist Osama Bin Laden was actively in the market for a nuclear weapon. With the economic and political crisis in Russia, every day it becomes more likely that a cash-strapped soldier or nuclear worker will yield to the temptation to sell a nuclear weapon or weapons-useable plutonium to a terrorist or criminal organization. These publications not only identify threats but also make specific recommendations about actions the United States should take to address this first-order threat to national security. Matthew Bunn, Assistant Director of the Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, has been working with Russian officials to improve the economic conditions of nuclear weapons facilities and nuclear custodians in Russia''s "secret nuclear cities." Richard Falkenrath, a faculty affiliate of the Center, continues to work with U.S. Government agencies on domestic preparedness for nuclear, chemical and biological attack. Matthew Meselson, a member of the Center''s Board of Directors and Director of the Harvard-Sussex Program on Chemical and Biological Armament and Arms Limitation, has for decades been one of the most thoughtful spokesmen on issues surrounding biological and chemical weapons. Recently he has been focusing on preventing the spread of biological weapons by giving teeth to the Biological Weapons Convention. BCSIA Board Member John Deutch has been appointed by Congress to chair the bipartisan Commission to Assess the Organization of the Federal Government to Combat the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Terrorism using weapons of mass destruction is an increasing threat to the United States and its allies. Even solid policies like those recommended by BCSIA researchers that will help prevent acquisition of these weapons, improve intelligence and early warning, and create a comprehensive plan for consequence management will not be enough. But if the U.S. Government takes concerted action now, it can decrease the NBC terrorist threat.
America''s Achilles'' Heel: Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack
Richard A. Falkenrath, Robert D. Newman, and Bradley A. Thayer (The MIT Press, 1998)
Although the threat of NBC attack is widely recognized as a central national security issue, most analysts have assumed that the primary danger is military use by states in war, with traditional military means of delivery. The threat of covert attack has been imprudently neglected.
Covert attack is hard to deter or prevent, and NBC weapons suitable for covert attack are available to a growing range of states and groups hostile to the United States. At the same time, many of the constraints on their use appear to be eroding. This volume analyzes the nature and limits of the covert NBC threat and proposes a measured set of policy responses, focused on improving intelligence and consequence-management capabilities to reduce U.S. vulnerability.
Catastrophic Terrorism: Elements of a National Policy
A Report by Ashton Carter, John Deutch and Philip Zelikow
This report stems from a year-long Universities Study Group on Catastrophic Terrorism, which originated as part of Kennedy School Dean Joseph Nye''s Project on Visions of Governance for the 21st Century. The authors, among them a former CIA Director, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense and a former member of the National Security Council staff, make recommendations for how the United States Government can be organized to counter the threat of NBC terrorism. Their "end-to-end" approach includes strategies for improving intelligence and warning, prevention and deterrence, crisis and consequence management, and for revamping the acquisitions processes to insure provision of the appropriate materials, equipment and technology.
A version of this report has been published in the November/December issue of the journal Foreign Affairs.
Terrorism and America: A Commonsense Strategy for a Democratic Society
Philip B. Heymann (The MIT Press, 1998)
In this book, Philip Heymann argues that the United States and other democracies can fight terrorism while preserving liberty and maintaining a healthy, unified society. Drawing on his experience in the U.S. Departments of State and Justice, he shows how domestic and foreign intelligence-gathering can thwart terrorism, how the United States must cooperate and share information with its allies, and how terrorism can be prevented in many cases. Terrorism will never disappear completely, but the policies Heymann offers can limit the harm to Americans and protect the integrity of U.S. governmental processes.
Philip Heymann is a professor at Harvard Law School. His book was published by the BCSIA Studies in International Security.
Forthcoming from the BCSIA Studies in International Security Book Series
Biological Weapons: Limiting the Threat
edited by Joshua Lederberg (The MIT Press, 1999)
The essays in this book, many of which were originally published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, examine the medical, scientific, and political dimensions of limiting the threat posed by biological weapons. The contributors consider the current threat posed by biological weapons, the history of attempts to control them, episodes in which biological agents have been used, Iraq''s biological warfare program, and policies that the United States might pursue to reduce the threat.
Dr. Lederberg is a Nobel Laureate and President Emeritus of Rockefeller University.