Climate Change in the Arab World

COPENHAGEN -- The amount and quality of available scientific data on the global impact of climate change is staggering -- as I rediscovered at a seminar organized by the Danish foreign ministry in Copenhagen this week. The debate that swirled around the issues of climate change and global warming just two or three years ago has vanished. There is much more certainty now on the nature and extent of the changes to the Earth’s climate that can be attributed to the impact of human activity, mainly the burning of fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases.

The collective technical knowledge of humankind, however, is not yet matched by parallel political will to act early and decisively enough to reduce the consequences of climate change, and nowhere is this more evident than in the countries of the Middle East. The contrast between the actions of European countries -- individually or collectively via the European Union -- and the relative inaction in the Arab world is staggering.

Equally dangerous is an emerging new trend in global climate change analysis and pre-emptive policy-making that sees climate change consequences as a security issue, rather than only of environmental or economic consequence. Countries hard hit by climate change which do not take early mitigation or adaptation measure will suffer severe consequences and become a menace to themselves and to others. These consequences could include large-scale population displacements, job losses, food and water shortages, social and political strife, unchecked migration, waves of “climate refugees,” and armed conflicts over water or land.

A fine report addressing climate change challenges primarily as security threats was published this year, providing a terrific synthesis of our knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change. This compact but rich 36-page report, entitled Climate Change: Global risks, challenges and decisions -- Synthesis Report, summarized the deliberations of 12 leading international scholars who met in Copenhagen in March under the aegis of the International Alliance of Research Universities (www.climatecongress.ku.dk). In it, University of Copenhagen Professor Ole Waever, a leading scholar of international relations security theory, wrote that not only can climate change exacerbate conflicts and increase strains and violence among competing groups, but also that, "When issues are cast in security terms, leaders get increased latitude for dramatic measures. It is crucial that this ‘security-driven empowerment’ in the case of climate change gets ‘channeled’ into strengthening of international institutions, and not unilateral emergency acts. Factoring security into the climate change equation runs the risk of escalating vicious circles. In the parts of the world where health and wellbeing are most negatively impacted by climate change, the liklelihood of conflict will increase most, and these conflicts will further reduce living standards."

The security/climate change nexus is critical for the Middle East, which is setting itself up for a catastrophe if individual countries do not soon summon the political will and strength of character to acknowledge the likely consequences of climate change and act preemptively to deal with them. In a region that is already fully or semi-arid, with limited arable land for agriculture, and major cities burgeoning out of control due to high birth and rural-to-urban emigration rates, unchecked climate change that raises the average temperature by two degrees Centigrade is certain to aggravate the trends that have already turned our region into a showcase of incompetent public management and poor governance. These trends include declining fresh water resources and degradation of water quality, urban hyper-growth, rising food costs, and widening disparities in terms of income, health and social services, water and sanitation services, food quality, education, and overall quality of life.

Signs to date suggest that most Arab countries in the past generation have been unable to manage public services, the economy, and the equitable distribution of, and access to, resources in a manner that allowed the living standards of most citizens to improve steadily. Rather, a small slice of Arabs has enjoyed significant wealth or very comfortable living standards, while the majority has remained mired in low-income living conditions -- conditions not desperate enough to foment social or political unrest, but not allowing the bulk of our citizens to graduate into a middle class of security, hope and wellbeing.

At a recent seminar at the American University of Beirut, climate change researchers from four Levant countries reported that massive quantities of fresh water are pumped out of the ground and used by private interests, without state regulation. Consistent over-exploitation of underground aquifers has seen fresh water supplies decline steadily in many if not most Arab countries. Water sectoral allocation, pricing, re-use, storage and conveyance are widely mismanaged throughout our region. It is difficult to see how a region that has been unable to master the most basic aspects of integrated water resources management can possibly muster the skills and political will to deal with the far more serious challenges of climate change. A resort to climate matters as a security issue is always possible in a region where security agencies dominate society, and lead to severe distortions that partly account for the moribund state of Arab society.

The early warning signs are clear for all to see, and the scientific knowledge needed to deal with the challenges and potential threats is widely available to anyone with an internet connection. In the late 1970s, we were warned about imminent stress resulting from population growth, urban sprawl, arable land misuse, and water shortages. We did virtually nothing about all these issues, and they have blossomed into veritable crises that plague majorities of our citizens -- though the leaderships and elites are shielded from the pain. We will look like world class idiots if we again ignore these warnings about climate change issues with the potential consequences much more dire. One generation of amateurish national natural resource management is the most that any people should suffer.