The Credibility of Power: Assessing Threats during the "Appeasement" Crises of the 1930s

Overview

For decades, policymakers and scholars have speculated about the sources of credibility in international politics. According to the prevailing view, the credibility of states depends on their keeping their commitments; those that do not keep their commitments will lack credibility. Using evidence from German decisionmaking during the “appeasement” crises of the 1930s, Daryl Press of Dartmouth College argues that German leaders did not assess British and French credibility on the basis of their history of keeping (or breaking) commitments. Rather, German leaders believed British and French threats when the military balance favored the Allies and dismissed them when the balance shifted to favor Germany. More generally, Press argues that leaders assess credibility during crises by focusing on the stakes and military situation in the present, not on their adversary's past behavior.