Cyprus Must Not Miss this Chance to Reunify

Negotiators from Brussels, London and Washington have two short weeks to snatch reunification from the jaws of enduring separation in Cyprus. Despite the valiant negotiating efforts of Kofi Annan, UN secretary-general, and his dedicated team, opinion polls predict a decisive defeat in the Greek-controlled south in the vote on the UN's final plan for reunification at a referendum on April 24. The Turkish Cypriots in the north may also give No as their answer.

One or both referendum defeats will mean the end of Cyprus's reunification hopes after 30 years of near partition. A week later, the Republic of Cyprus in the south will enter the European Union alone. Its border with the unrecognised Turkish Republic of North Cyprus will become an untidy international bifurcation and there will be few incentives for the EU to welcome Turkey's membership application.

Negotiations, which have been vigorous since 2002, have gathered pace in recent months without success. Tassos Papadopoulos, the president of Greek Cyprus, and Rauf Denktash, his Turkish counterpart, bargained with the UN team in February and March but failed to agree on how to reunify the island with Mr Denktash being particularly obstructive. Mr Annan convened a meeting this month in Switzerland with the two Cypriot leaders and the prime ministers of Greece and Turkey. But they too could not come up with the magic formula.

Good negotiators seek agreements that respond to the needs of the contending parties. Mr Annan's team has therefore tried in recent weeks to gain support from the Turkish north and from Turkey itself. If the Annan plan is rejected, people on both sides of Cyprus lose, but so do the inhabitants of mainland Turkey, whose chances of entering the EU before 2010 will be slim if Turkish Cyprus votes No. Various EU spokesmen have hinted - and recently declared outright - that Turkey has no hope of entering the EU unless it ensures the reunification of Cyprus.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, thus loses, too. He wants to fulfil Kemal Ataturk's legacy and make Turkey an EU member. In January, he indicated to Mr Annan and Washington that he could and would assure Mr Denktash's compliance, and the neutrality of Turkey's generals.

Mr Annan has prepared the fourth and final plan that now goes before the two sets of Cypriot voters. It calls for a weak federation of two largely autonomous states. It permits numerous Turkish troops to remain in the north and limits the number of Greek Cypriots who would be allowed to return to their pre-1974 homes there. It also curtails the rights of Greek Cypriots to vote in the north.

Under the Annan plan, Greek-speaking and Turkish-speaking Cypriots would share executive and legislative functions according to a formula that gives the numerically fewer Turkish-speakers - they make up 18 per cent of the population - an equal say. Greece, Turkey, with its troops, and Britain, are guarantors of the contemplated agreement, and a UN force would continue to oversee peace on the island.

Turkey and some of the anti-Denktash leaders in the Turkish north have welcomed Mr Annan's last-minute suggestions, which might be enough to sway the voters in the north, most of whom are anxious to take advantage of economic opportunities within the EU. The Turkish Cypriots are seven times poorer than their Greek Cypriot cousins in the south. But Mr Denktash, the dominant politician in the north, neither wants to see Cyprus reunified nor to lose his own power. He argues that even under a weakened federal government the Turkish Cypriots will lose their fundamental rights and security.

The concessions to the Turkish north and Turkey appeared perfidious to the Greek Cypriots. They view the proposed federal arrangement as too limited because it gives Turkish Cypriots a veto over federal decisions.

However, unless the Greek Cypriot president and his government work strenuously for a Yes vote, Cyprus will enter the EU divided. Costas Karamanlis, Greece's prime minister, might be able to influence the Greek Cypriot government, but he will be willing to do so only if Brussels, London, and Washington lean on him hard.

London and Washington need to press their Greek-speaking allies immediately to campaign for a Yes vote, just as Mr Erdogan needs to go over Mr Denktash's head to reach the Turkish Cypriots. Otherwise,Cyprus's best chance of coming together in peace will be lost.