Deceptive Calm in Gaza

BEIRUT -- How quickly and easily the Middle East and the world seem to accept mass brutalization of Palestinians as a normal state of affairs. Yet an important lesson of our age is that Palestinians themselves will not passively acquiesce in this fate forever. The third generation of Palestinians since the nakba -- the shattering and exile of the Palestinians that was part of the birth of the Jewish Israeli state in 1947-48 -- has indicated through two intifadas and the current Hamas-led resistance that it will fight back and force a reshuffling of the political and diplomatic cards when the status quo becomes unbearable.

Israel's siege of Gaza since the Hamas electoral victory of 2006 has been widely supported by major Western powers, and quietly supported by some Arab quarters. Hamas and other smaller resistance groups responded by confronting Israel and the Fateh leadership of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, leading to a small war between Hamas and Fateh in 2007 and a larger conflict between Hamas and Israel in 2008-09.

Now, months later, the Gaza situation seems to have returned to its default state of siege, stagnation, de-development and oblivion. This includes continued mass reliance on international charity simply to feed most of the residents of Gaza -- but at levels of nutrition well below what is required for normal growth and development. Last year, according to data from UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for providing Palestinian refugees with their basic needs), children in Gaza were showing signs of stunting that reflects malnourishment which normally takes a few years to manifest itself. That means they are shorter and smaller than they should be for their age.

It seems then that not only are the Palestinians of Gaza denied the rewards of their democratic elections, and denied the opportunity to travel normally and trade with the world, but they are also being denied the right to their biological capacity to grow and develop as normal human beings.

Though politically dehumanized, Palestinians will not also accept being physically miniaturized.

So we can be sure of one thing now, when Gaza appears quiet on the surface: The Palestinians in Gaza are not passively watching their own dehumanization on television and wallowing in self-pity. What they are doing, and how their actions will translate into new political or military dynamics, is not evident on the surface. What is clear is that the status quo will not hold, and will be shattered in ways we cannot now predict.

This has been aptly stated in a new report by the prescient and honest analysts at the International Crisis Group (ICG), in a report entitled Gaza's Unfinished Business (available at http://www.crisisgroup.org ). It notes that three months after the December-January Gaza war, "urgency has given way to complacency and complacency to neglect...If the underlying factors that precipitated the Gaza war are not addressed, Hamas and Israel could soon find themselves on the edge of another explosion."

The fundamental crisis today, ICG reminds us, is not humanitarian but political. "If the siege remains, Hamas could launch large-scale attacks. If weapons smuggling and rocket fire persist, Israel could mount a new offensive. Without some Palestinian unity, Gaza's rebuilding will not begin. In short, defusing this crisis requires a sustainable Israel-Hamas ceasefire, Gaza's reconstruction and Palestinian reconciliation."

A vital first step is a credible ceasefire agreement that includes re-opening Gaza's borders and stopping attacks against Israel. ICG also argues wisely that the Quartet should soften its insistence on any Palestinian unity government accepting Israeli demands on recognition and security as an entry ticket into negotiations. Instead the Quartet and the world should judge a new Palestinian unity government, "on what really counts: willingness (or not) to enforce a mutual ceasefire with Israel, acceptance of the PLO Chairman's authority to negotiate an agreement with Israel and respect for the results of a referendum on an eventual accord."

Such unbiased, facts-based analysis looks at Palestinian and Israeli rights as goals of equal magnitude that need to be implemented simultaneously. This is in sharp contrast with the American- and Israeli-led Quartet, which -- persistently unsuccessfully -- demands commitment to Israel's security as the starting point for any diplomacy.

"The world is adjusting to the status quo, but the status quo is not sustainable," warns Robert Malley, ICG's Middle East Program Director. "Getting out of the current deadlock will require courageous and forward-looking adjustment by all -- Palestinians, Israel and the international community alike. Otherwise, a besieged Gaza once again will reach a boiling point."

It's very simple, really. When Jews were dehumanized and brutalized in Christian Europe, they broke out of their siege and created their state of Israel. The Palestinians are now at a similar stage of national traumatization, resistance and rebirth. Human beings do not take kindly to being miniaturized.

Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut, Lebanon.