Reports & Papers
from
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Is Democracy Doomed in Russia?
September 21, 2000
Summary by Chang Suh
"Imagine that someone is really sick and all the people who know him come together to help... People say democracy in Russia lost its chance but I believe democracy is this sick person. [It] still has a chance to survive." So said Leonid Teleleiko, one of two thousand Russian regional leaders participating in this year''s Library of Congress Open World Russian Leadership Program (RLP). Mr. Teleleiko, a deputy of the Regional Council of Krasnodar Region, and Irina Kutyukhina, a deputy of the City Council of Miass (pop. 180,000) in Chelyabinsk Oblast, were two of the keynote speakers featured at the Kennedy School of Government seminar on the future of Russian democracy and the prospects of party development. They were joined by six other regional leaders who represented a wide range of geographical and professional backgrounds. The seminar took place on September 21st and was cosponsored by Harvard''s Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project and the National Democratic Institute.
Two "contradictory trends" currently coexist in Russia according to Mr. Teleleiko, a member of the Yabloko Party. First of all, historically, there is a tradition of power being centralized and located in Moscow or in Saint Petersburg. On the other hand, Mr. Teleleiko observed, there is another trend, which indicates a steady growth in regional independence from the federal center. How could such two seemingly contradictory trends coexist? That is precisely what Mr. Teleleiko says makes it difficult to speculate on the future of party development— and tangentially, the viability of democracy— in Russia.
He argued that Krasnodar is a microcosm in which Russia''s important political developments are mirrored and thus he said the region can be studied as an exemplar. He cited, for instance, the decrease in political clout of LDPR and its mirrored phenomenon in Krasnodar, which is considered to be a part of the Russian "Red Belt" region where Communist forces predominantly wield power. Also, Unity made a strong showing in Krasnodar (and in Russia as a whole) in the recent elections. Finally, Yabloko''s support remained stable in Krasnodar representing its performance countrywide.
Mr. Teleleiko also indicated that the post-election political barometers have finally begun to stabilize. While LDPR has lost many seats, Unity and Yabloko have nurtured a "stable" following in Krasnodar Region. However, in Krasnodar Region, regional governor Kondratenko and his party Fatherland dominate the political scene. Fatherland''s members hold 38 of the 50 Regional Council seats. 26 of these 38 actually belong to the Communist Party, but were elected as members of Fatherland. Mr. Teleleiko was careful to point out that Governor Kondratenko''s Fatherland was not to be confused with Fatherland Party, which is affiliated with Mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov. He noted that members of the latter now tend to guise themselves as "independent" in Krasnodar Region rather than openly declare party affiliation.
Irina Kutyukhina opened her presentation by giving a quick appraisal of the last ten years of democratic reforms in Russia: "We had hoped for a better life, and we supported certain politicians... but now [the condition of life in the Urals] is worse." She noted that while the existence of parties is a positive development, the past decade of reforms is also associated with a decline in the standard of living. In addition, she said, it is hard to accept the results of privatization as democratic when only 3% of the population benefited from it (and the United States is implicated in this sad fact).
Kutyukhina, from the city of Miass in Chelyabinsk Oblast, went on to give a political profile of the region, which is part of the so-called "Red Belt." Only 3 out of the 25 current members of the Miass City Council represent Yabloko. The rest are— like the mayor of Miass City and the governor of Chelyabinsk Oblast— predominantly Communist Party members.
Asked about President Putin, Ms. Kutyukhina reassured the audience that "there is no need to fear Putin." The Kursk incident has undoubtedly influenced him and people began to question "who is really in power?" She described him as a "young politician who probably wants another term in office." Because he will want to be reelected, Ms. Kutyukhina suggested that President Putin will become more inclined to listen to, and keep account of, the western press as a result of the aftermath of the Kursk incident. As for Unity, Kutyukhina predicted that it would not last more than 3-4 years.
She noted that 39 regional elections will be held in the Russian Federation this December. In Chelyabinsk, all the main parties have named an intention to run candidates for local office. Unity will make an attempt to dominate, but Kutyukhina hopes and predicts that concrete issues are what will ultimately sway voters. As for the upcoming gubernatorial elections in Chelyabinsk, the latest surveys indicated that more than 50% of the people in the region support the Communist Governor Sumin. More likely than not, he will stay in power.
Questions and Answers:
When asked why Governor Kondratenko of Krasnodar Region decided against running for reelection, Mr. Teleleiko answered that it is still not too late to declare oneself a candidate and that he was 99% confident that Governor Kondratenko will indeed run this year. In fact, he said, Kondratenko''s delay is just a campaign ploy. He added the caveat, however, that Kondratenko would not run if President Putin were against it.
When asked about the likelihood of a successful unification of Yabloko and The Union of Right Forces (SPS), Valeriy Airapetov, chief of staff of the Yabloko Party in the State Duma, indicated that there were not many differences between the two political organizations. He predicted that the two blocs would try to work together to find common ground and democratic candidates in upcoming regional elections. He admitted that there were some forces in Yabloko that were not glad about the union, but that 99% of the SPS leadership was glad about the coalition.
Yulia Malysheva, an SPS member and a local Moscow council representative, acknowledged that there might be "personal problems" between Chubais and Yavlinskiy. However, the relationship between the two parties is more stable on the municipal level and party members see eye to eye on a number of issues. Irina Kuzmina, the Press Secretary of the St. Petersburg branch of the Yabloko party, noted that in recent appearances, both Khakamada and Nemtsov have publicly supported Yavlinsky. Mr. Teleleiko added that there are still 3 years left before the next parliamentary elections, allowing time for these two parties to gel their relationship.
On the differences between Yabloko and SPS, Mr. Airapetov indicated that SPS generally supports "big business" whereas Yabloko focuses more on developing small to midsize businesses. Ms. Malysheva pointed out that SPS believes in lowering taxes until ordinary citizens have had a chance to improve their economic situations, whereas Yabloko leans toward higher taxes. She also said that SPS has always tried to cooperate with the ruling party, while Yabloko defines itself as the party of the opposition.
When asked about efforts to engage Russian youth in politics, Ms. Malysheva, formerly head of the SPS youth organization in Moscow, answered that SPS has tried various methods, such as organizing demonstrations, holding concerts and using the media to attract the younger generation. Ms. Kutyukhina addressed a broader array of issues, highlighting the efforts in Chelyabinsk Region to reactivate summer camps, orphanage programs as well as general programs to help children and women.
There were mixed responses as to whether "democratic tendencies" (a phrase that participants admitted was difficult to define) still exist in the aftermath of the August crash in 1998. Irina Kuzmina, Press Secretary of the Saint Petersburg branch of Yabloko, indicated that such "tendencies" remain in the sense that Russia has preserved a multiparty system. However she was more skeptical about the existence of such tendencies in a more general sense. Mr. Teleleiko expressed his doubt that his 18-year-old daughter would want to return to the Communist past, saying that a "democratic mood" exists among the people and in the political scene that had not existed before. He pointed out that despite Grigory Yavlinskiy''s being labeled a "traitor" for his stance on Chechnya, he still received 6% of the national votes in the presidential elections.
Viktor Kiselyev, Chairman of the St. Petersburg Council on Municipal Education, suggested that Russia had already passed through the first stage of democratic development. The proof was the existence of a multiparty system and the fact that even the pensioners were set against "returning to the past."
Dmitri Mikhailov, Chairman of the Election Commission in Yaroslavl, shared Mr. Kiselyov''s conviction that there is "no going back." He expressed his cautious optimism for the development of a parliamentary republic, and felt that the number of active parties would reduce to 3 or 4 in the future. He added that Yabloko and SPS together generally accrued more votes in Yaroslavl than the Communist Party.