Blog Post
In an era contorted by terror, Afghanistan may be a classic failed state. The WPF Program on Intrastate Conflict''s failed states project has become even more relevant than previously. In a series of three meetings led by Program Director Robert Rotberg, the latest of which took place at the Kennedy School in June and July, the WPF Program has been examining what causes a functioning, if weak, state to lapse into failure.
States fail when they are convulsed by civil war, fail to provide political goods, and become illegitimate. Research for a book manuscript in progress suggests several mutually reinforcing paths to failure. Along the economic one, rapidly deteriorating standards of living, coupled with the perceived unfair arrogation of the remaining financial rewards to a favored family, clan, or small group, accelerates a fall. Foreign exchange shortages curtail state spending on essential services (political goods), and the mass of citizens see their health, educational, and logistical entitlements melt away. Corruption is always a part of this process, for ruling cadres -- sets of permanent bandits -- systematically skim what few resources there are.
Along the political road, an elected leader and his associates (or a military junta) subvert prevailing democratic norms, greatly restrict participatory processes, create or coerce the legislature and the bureaucracy into subservience, end judicial independence, block civil society, and gain control over the security forces. An ethnic group, clan, class, or kin, are often favored, while others feel excluded and discriminated against.
For any or all of these proximate reasons, the state''s legitimacy crumbles. With abundant grievances and a lack of meaningful or realistic roads of redress, protestors take to the streets or mobilize in their ethnic, linguistic, or religious heartlands, accelerating the violence, lack of public goods, and lack of governmental legitimacy that comprise the three dimensions of failure.
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