Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace after Civil War

| Winter 2021/22

Summary

An analysis of new data on postwar election results and remilitarization finds that losing elections does not drive belligerents to remilitarize. The chance of renewed war increases if the military power balance after war inverts, and the war-loser performs poorly in the elections. If relative military power remains stable, or citizens accurately update their understanding of the postwar power balance, a civil war actor is unlikely to remilitarize if it loses the election. Preserving the balance of power in the aftermath of such elections is therefore critical for lasting peace.

Want to Read More?

The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.
Read Full Article
For more information on this publication: Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation:
Sarah Zukerman Daly, "A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace after Civil War," International Security, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Winter 2021/22), pp. 163–204, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00429.

The Author

Recommended
In the Spotlight
RSS
Lawrence Summers, Philip Zelikow, and Robert Zoellick argue that Ukraine’s allies should use the $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets to show Putin he cannot outlast Ukraine and the West economically.
Global attention to the problem of sexual violence in conflict is important, writes Dara Kay Cohen, but accountability alone has serious limitations as a tool for deterrence of conflict-related sexual violence and may do little to address the root cause.
Guido Torres assesses impacts of the war in Ukraine on Latin America’s economic and political situation and recommends steps the U.S. can take to reduce the negative impacts and protect Latin American sovereignty.
Most Viewed

Tags