A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace after Civil War

READ FULL ARTICLE

Published: Winter 2021/22

A leftist combatant of the FMLN stands guard as a U.N. helicopter lands carrying guerrilla commanders in San Jose Las Flores, in the Chalatenango province 40 miles north of San Salvador, Jan. 22, 1992. The rebel leaders were returning from Mexico where they attended the signing of the peace accord ending the 12-year civil war between El Salvador's rightist government and leftist guerrilla leaders.

Summary

An analysis of new data on postwar election results and remilitarization finds that losing elections does not drive belligerents to remilitarize. The chance of renewed war increases if the military power balance after war inverts, and the war-loser performs poorly in the elections. If relative military power remains stable, or citizens accurately update their understanding of the postwar power balance, a civil war actor is unlikely to remilitarize if it loses the election. Preserving the balance of power in the aftermath of such elections is therefore critical for lasting peace.

Recommended citation

Sarah Zukerman Daly, "A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace after Civil War," International Security, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Winter 2021/22), pp. 163–204, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00429.