Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace after Civil War
Summary
An analysis of new data on postwar election results and remilitarization finds that losing elections does not drive belligerents to remilitarize. The chance of renewed war increases if the military power balance after war inverts, and the war-loser performs poorly in the elections. If relative military power remains stable, or citizens accurately update their understanding of the postwar power balance, a civil war actor is unlikely to remilitarize if it loses the election. Preserving the balance of power in the aftermath of such elections is therefore critical for lasting peace.
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The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.
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For Academic Citation:
Sarah Zukerman Daly, "A Farewell to Arms? Election Results and Lasting Peace after Civil War," International Security, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Winter 2021/22), pp. 163–204, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00429.
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Summary
An analysis of new data on postwar election results and remilitarization finds that losing elections does not drive belligerents to remilitarize. The chance of renewed war increases if the military power balance after war inverts, and the war-loser performs poorly in the elections. If relative military power remains stable, or citizens accurately update their understanding of the postwar power balance, a civil war actor is unlikely to remilitarize if it loses the election. Preserving the balance of power in the aftermath of such elections is therefore critical for lasting peace.
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