Great Expectations: Interpreting China's Arrival

Abstract

Is China on the fast track to becoming a great power? If so, what does this mean for both regional and world order in the twenty-first century? Avery Goldstein of the University of Pennsylvania addresses the conventional wisdom that China's potential emergence as an economic and military great power may pose a threat to international security. He focuses his analysis on the military-security dimensions of China's recent growth, and concludes that the increases in China's military capabilities most important for international security have thus far been modest. Nevertheless, "international relations theory provides persuasive reasons to expect China's growing power to increase the frequency and intensity of international conflicts." The same body of theory, however, also offers ways for states to manage these conflicts, which leads Goldstein to his final conclusion that concerns about China engaging in a major war may be "unnecessarily alarmist."