Blog Post
Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd edition
By Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow
(Longman, 1999)
Not only revised, but completely rewritten, the new edition of Essence of
Decision provides deeper and clearer answers to an enduring question: how
should citizens understand the actions of their governments? The authors''
aims in this book remain the two stated in the preface of the original
edition: to examine the central puzzles of the Cuban missile crisis, and to
explore the influence of unrecognized assumptions upon our thinking in
events like the missile crisis. While the structure of the book remains
largely the same as in the earlier edition, new historical evidence, and
new analysis that reflects the developments in both the social sciences and
the world since 1972 when Essence was first published have been integrated
into the text.
The decision to revise a best-seller in political science that has been in
print continuously for over a quarter century and sold 250,000 copies
requires justification. First, the historical evidence about the Cuban
missile crisis has grown dramatically, stimulated by a series of oral
history conferences and declassification efforts in the past few years.
Among the important additions to this body of information is The Kennedy
Tapes: Inside the White House During the Cuban Missile Crisis by Ernest May
and Philip Zelikow, a transcription of secret tapes of the Kennedy
Adminstration''s deliberation during the crisis. The co-authors of this
revised edition of Essence say "the most pleasurable part of this endeavor
has been to see how this new evidence glistens when examined through
alternative conceptual lenses."
Second, the analytical and theoretical scholarship from which the core
arguments in the original edition of Essence were drawn have advanced: in
studies of international affairs; in the disciplines of political science,
economics, sociology, social psychology, organization theory, and decision
analysis; and in important new applied arenas including public policy and
business. The first edition engaged central questions in each of these
arenas, and has subsequently been engaged by authors in each. Indeed, the
original statement of the argument became a lightning rod for wide-ranging
criticism and debate, not only in political science, but in many other
fields. While it is obviously not possible to take full account of all
theoretical and analytical scholarship bearing on these arguments since the
original edition, the earlier statement of the argument has been clarified,
enriched, and extended in several dimensions.
Third, managers in government, business, and the non-profits sector have
found the argument in the original edition more valuable than its author
had anticipated. The book has been used in graduate schools of government
and public policy, business, and other professional training programs where
the objective is preparation for practice, rather than theory. Use of more
abstract concepts and propositions to provide perspectives and checklists
for practitioners who must stretch beyond explanation to prescription for
action constitutes an important extension of the work that deserves more
focused attention.
Finally, the author of the first edition, Graham Allison has of course
learned a great deal from many generations of students, colleagues, and
critics. But not until a partnership emerged with Philip Zelikow, a (then)
Harvard colleague trained as a historian who had served in the White House
and then taught the argument from Essence for a number of years did the
idea of attempting a challenge that had otherwise appeared too daunting
become credible.
Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America
by Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry
(Brookings Institution Press, 1999)
Through more than four decades of the Cold War, American national security
strategy, although difficult to implement, was easy to understand. America
was set on a clear course to contain Soviet expansionism anywhere in the
world, all the while building a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons to
deter the Soviet Union from using military force against it or its allies.
Then the underlying rationale for that strategy - the threat from the
Soviet Union - disappeared. For a time, American policy focused on the
immediate task of peaceful adjustment to the collapse of communism in
Europe and Russia. But the transition period has ended, and a new strategy
is urgently needed. What should the American security strategy be as the
twenty-first century opens?
Former Secretary of Defense William Perry and former Assistant Secretary of
Defense for International Security Policy Ashton Carter propose a new
security strategy for the United States in the twenty-first century. The
authors argue that the United States is enjoying a period of peace and
influence like it has never had before. But while this should be savored by
the public, foreign policy and defense leaders cannot afford to be so
complacent. A period of absence of major threats must stretch the US
strategically; it calls for vision and foresight to act strategically when
events and imminent threats do not compel us to do so. That should be the
primary business of statecraft in the post-Cold War era.
Because the security strategy created to deal with the threats of the Cold
War is not suitable for dealing with the dangers to our security in the
twenty-first century, the authors believe that the United States should now
follow the example of Truman, Marshall, and Acheson at America''s last great
strategic transition: it should formulate a new security strategy
appropriate for this new world, and should create the policies and programs capable of carrying out that strategy. In essence, America has another chance to realize Marshall''s initial vision at the end of World War II: a world not of threats to be deterred, but a world "united in peace, freedom, and prosperity." To realize this vision, America should return to a prevention strategy like that embodied so successfully in the Marshall Plan. Carter and Perry call this strategy Preventive Defense.
Preventive Defense is a defense strategy for the United States in the
twenty-first century that concentrates national security strategy on the
dangers which, if mismanaged, have the potential to grow into true A-list
scale threats to U.S. survival in the next century, bringing the current
era to an abrupt and painful end. These dangers are not yet threats to be
defeated or deterred; they are dangers that can be prevented. Like
preventive medicine, Preventive Defense seeks to forestall dangerous
developments before they require drastic remedies. Preventive Defense is
about both grave dangers to U.S. security and great opportunities to
safeguard it.
The authors argue that developing and implementing a strategy of Preventive
Defense is the most important mission of today''s national security leaders
and defense establishment. They must dedicate themselves to Preventive
Defense at the same time they deter lesser but existing threats - in Iraq
and North Korea - and conduct selected peacekeeping and humanitarian
missions - in Bosnia, Haiti, Rwanda, and so on - where conflict threatens
long-term interests.
Informed by the authors'' service in the Pentagon during President Clinton''s
first term, this book identifies six major dangers to U.S. security that
have the potential to grow into threats to American interests and values as
ominous as the Cold War''s nuclear standoff. In chapters that cover chilling
dangers ranging from Russia''s implosion to the rising power of China, and
from proliferation of biological weapons to cyber terrorism, the authors
first recount from first hand experience the Pentagon''s efforts to define
and prevent dangers to U.S. security since the end of the Cold War, and
then advance preventive defense strategies for the future. It argues that
implementing a Preventive Defense strategy will require a revolution in the
way the Pentagon does business; a revolution that is only beginning.
Ashton B. Carter is Ford Foundation Professor
of Science and International Affairs at Harvard University''s John F.
Kennedy School of Government and former Assistant Secretary of Defense for
International Security Policy. William J. Perry is Michael and Barbara
Berberian Professor at Stanford University and former Secretary of Defense.
They are co-directors of the Stanford-Harvard Preventive Defense Project.
Nuclear Arms Control. Nuclear Deterrence in the post-Cold War Period
by Thomas Sauer
(Macmillan/St Martin''s Press, 1998)
In this monograph, ISP Fellow Sauer argues that the longer the nuclear
weapons states hold on to nuclear weapons, the greater the chance that
nuclear weapons will spread and will be used: by accident, in an authorized
or unauthorized way or that nuclear terrorism will become a reality. Living
with nuclear weapons, he writes, is only one of the options.
International Security, Vol. 23, No.3
Steven E. Miller, Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Coté Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones,
and Diane J. McCree, editors
(The MIT Press, Winter 1998/99)
The winter issue includes an article by Ole Holsti on the widening gap
between the U.S. military and civilian society. John Ikenberry looks at the
influence of multilateral alliances in the post-Cold War era. Robert Art considers the United States'' current options for developing a grand strategy. The role of nationalism in China''s foreign policymaking is the subject of
an article by Erica Strecker Downs and Phillip Saunders. Finally, John Owen, IV, reviews Michael Doyle''s book, Ways of War and Peace: Realism,
Liberalism, and Socialism.
International Security, Vol. 23, No.4
Steven E. Miller, Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Coté, Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones,
and Diane J. McCree, editors (The MIT Press, Spring 1999)
Stephen Walt, who will be joining the Kennedy School faculty in the fall,
leads off the spring issue with an article on rational choice theory and
security studies. In separate articles, Thomas Christensen and Robert Ross
evaluate East Asian stability in the twenty-first century. Christopher
Parker examines the consequences of increased arms sales to developing
states. And Sumit Ganguly and Samina Ahmed explore the motivations behind
India''s and Pakistan''s decisions to test their nuclear devices in May 1998.
European Business Sourcebook
By Michael See and Stefan Zhurek
(Thomson Business Press, 1998)
A reference resource on investing in 45 countries in Eastern and Western
Europe. This volume includes industry-specific and country-specific
information including: tax rules, regulatory issues, investment incentives,
data about local operating costs, and listings of major foreign investors
and their local partners.
Recent BCSIA Discussion Papers
The Impact of Economics on Environmental Policy by Robert W. Hahn.
Technological Diffusion in China''s Iron and Steel Industry by Karen
Fisher-Vanden.
A Japanese-Russian Agreement to Establish a Nuclear Facility for MOX
Fabrication and Spent Fuel Storage in the Russian Far East by Matthew Bunn,
Neil J. Numark and Tatsujiro Suzuki.
Getting to Zero: Is Pursuing a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World Too Difficult? Too
Dangerous? Too Distracting? by John P. Holdren.
Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon
Sequestration by Robert N. Stavins and Richard Newell.
(Not) Getting to ''Go'': Recent Experience in International Cooperation over
the Management of Spent Nuclear Reactor Fuel by Kate O''Neill.
Visit http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia for information about how to obtain copies.
Forthcoming Books
Bennett, Andrew. Condemned to Repetition? The Rise, Fall, and Reprise of
Soviet-Russian Military Interventionism, 1993-1996. (Forthcoming from The
MIT Press, 1999)
Utgoff, Victor, ed. The Coming Nuclear Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S.
Interests, and World Order. (Forthcoming from The MIT Press, 1999)