Blog Post
The Coming Nuclear Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order
Victor A. Utgoff, editor; foreword by General Larry D. Welch
(The MIT Press, 2000)
A BCSIA Study in International Security
How will continued proliferation of nuclear weapons change the global political order? This collection of essays comes to conclusions at odds with the conventional wisdom.
Stephen Rosen of Harvard and Barry Posen of MIT explore how nuclear proliferation may affect U.S. efforts to confront regional aggression. Stephen Walt of BCSIA argues that regional allies will likely prove willing to stand with a strong and ready United States against nuclear-backed aggression. George Quester of the University of Maryland and Brad Roberts of the Institute for Defense Analyses examine long-term strategic objectives in responding to nuclear attack by a regional aggressor. Richard Betts of Columbia University highlights the potential for disastrous mistakes in moving to and living in a world heavily populated with nuclear-armed states.
Scott Sagan of Stanford explains how the nuclear non-proliferation policies best suited to some states can spur proliferation by others. Caroline Ziemke of the Institute for Defense Analyses shows how the analysis of a state''s strategic personality can provide insights into why it might want nuclear weapons and how its policies may develop once it gets them. Finally, Victor Utgoff of the Institute for Defense Analyses concludes that the U.S. seems more likely to intervene against regional aggression when the aggressor has nuclear weapons than when it does not. (http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/Library.nsf/pubs/crisisutgoff)
"[This book] explores many of the key policy issues prompted by the spread of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction."
--Barry M. Blechman, President, Defense Forecasts International
America''s Asian Alliances
Robert D. Blackwill and Paul Dibb, editors
(The MIT Press, 2000)
A BCSIA Study in International Security
The Asia-Pacific faces an arc of potential instability, from the divided Korean peninsula in Northeast Asia, to the nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan on the South Asian subcontinent, to an unstable Indonesia in Southeast Asia.
The United States and its allies must also address the rise of Chinese power, slow the spread of nuclear and high-tech conventional weapons, maintain access to energy resources, and expand the world free trade system.
In this book, nine distinguished U.S. and Australian strategists propose systematic and concrete prescriptions for strengthening America''s Asian alliances. These policy-driven chapters address the roles that the U.S.-Japan,
U.S.-South Korea, and U.S.-Australia alliances can play in advancing long-term harmony and well-being in the region.
Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill is the Belfer Lecturer in International Security at the Kennedy School. Paul Dibb is Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University. (http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/Library.nsf/Isbschron)
"This timely and cogent volume illustrates the importance— -and the potential peril— -that Asia represents for America''s future."
--Jim Hoagland, Associate Editor, The Washington Post.
Rational Choice and Security Studies: Stephen Walt and His Critics
Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Cot, Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, editors
(The MIT Press, 2000)
An International Security Reader
This collection of articles from BCSIA''s journal, International Security, presents opposing views on the merits of formal rational choice approaches as they have been applied in international security studies. The volume consists of a debate that was stimulated by "Rigor or Rigor Mortis?" a spring 1999 International Security article by BCSIA''s Stephen M. Walt, Kirkpatrick Professor of International Affairs at the Kennedy School.
In his article, Walt argues that formal approaches have not led to creative new theoretical explanations, that they lack empirical support, and that they have contributed little to the analysis of important contemporary security problems.
In their replies, which also appeared in International Security, proponents of rational choice approaches emphasize that formal methods are essential for achieving theoretical consistency and precision. For now, at least, Walt has the last word in the book''s concluding chapter. (http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/Library .nsf/pubs/Walt_choice)
"Stephen Walt''s vigorous challenge demanded a response. It got it! Readers can enjoy judging the contest or taking sides."
--Thomas C. Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland
Trust and Risk in Internet Commerce
By L. Jean Camp
(The MIT Press, 2000)
Underlying Internet-based commerce is a set of assumptions about trust and risk. The level of risk can be determined by looking at who trusts whom in Internet commerce transactions. Who will pay, in terms of money and data, if trust is misplaced? When the inevitable early failures occur, who will be at risk? Who is "liable" when there is a trusted third party? Why is it necessary to trust this party? What exactly is this party trusted to do? To answer such questions requires an understanding of security, record-keeping, privacy, and reliability.
Jean Camp, an STPP Faculty Affiliate, provides information on trust and risk to businesses that are developing electronic commerce systems, and helps consumers under-stand the risks in using the Internet for purchases, showing them how to protect themselves on-line. (http://www-mitpress.mit.edu)
The Next Wave: Urgently Needed New Steps to Control Warheads and Fissile Material
By Matthew Bunn
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Managing the Atom Project, 2000)
This study warns of the "clear and present danger" that nuclear materials in the former Soviet Union could be stolen and fall into hostile hands, and details the frightening threats to U.S. and international security posed by the massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons and their essential ingredients left over from decades of Cold War.
Theft of just a few kilograms of plutonium or highly enriched uranium (HEU) could allow a rogue state or terrorist group to make a nuclear bomb— and there have been multiple documented cases of theft of kilogram quantities of these materials since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Matthew Bunn, Assistant Director of STPP, outlines a comprehensive six-point plan for reducing these threats, calling for an increase in spending to secure, monitor, and reduce Russian nuclear stockpiles. The entire report is available at http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/Library.nsf /pubs/Nextwave.
International Trade and the Basel Convention
by Jonathan Krueger
(Earthscan / Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1999)
On what basis may one country ship hazardous waste to another? As hazardous waste becomes an international commodity, the questions grow more urgent. This study— which the Financial Times called "a landmark book"-- analyzes the international trade in hazardous waste, and the 1989 Basel Convention set up to control it.
In the run-up to the millennium round of trade negotiations, one issue is increasingly important: are the Basel provisions that allow restrictions on trade compatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization? GEA Fellow Jonathan Krueger focuses on efforts to ban transfers of hazardous wastes from industrialized to developing countries. He also analyzes the special concerns of developing countries and the illegal trade in hazardous wastes.
As the Convention begins its second decade of operation, Krueger suggests ways forward and draws lessons from the Basel experience for other international environmental agreements. (http://www.riia.org/Research/eep/energy.html#ITBC)
The Kosovo Conflict: A Diplomatic History Through Documents
Philip E. Auerswald and David P. Auerswald editors, foreword by Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr.
(Kluwer Law International, 2000)
The Kosovo conflict in spring 1999 brought an unsettling close to the 20th century, representing both a critical test of post-World War II international security structures and a chapter in a human tragedy that is far from concluded.
In this volume, STPP Fellow Philip Auerswald and David Auerswald (of George Washington University) have compiled the definitive collection of official, unclassified documents— agreements, speeches, communiqués, and statements— surrounding this event.
The volume traces growing tensions in the province over the ensuing decade, as well as the concurrent increase in international concern. Particular attention is given to the immediate prelude to the conflict and the conflict itself. Each chapter is prefaced with an essay and chronology describing that chapter''s context. (http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/Library.nsf /pubs/pa-kosovo)
Well-Ordered License: On the Unity of Machiavelli''s Thought
By Markus Fischer
(Lexington Books, 2000)
Well-Ordered License is a systematic interpretation of Machiavelli''s political thought. Markus Fischer, an ISP Fellow, demonstrates how Machiavelli''s various political maxims on both domestic and foreign affairs, which constitute the core of political realism, can be systematically derived from his premises about the world at large, the psychological attributes of human beings, and the proper ends and means of their actions. The book concludes with a critique of Machiavelli''s vexing claim that evil deeds are necessary for the political good. (http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/Library.nsf/pubs/ISP_machthgt)
Managing Technical Risk: Understanding Private Sector Decision Making on Early Stage, Technology-Based Projects
By Lewis M. Branscomb, Kenneth P. Morse, Michael J. Roberts, and Philip E. Auerswald
(Report to ATP/NIST, 2000)
The report to the Advanced Technology Program at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (ATP/NIST) of the "Managing Technical Risk" project team presents the views of innovators, managers and investors on the process of early stage, high-risk research in new product innovation.
Drawing on insights from practitioners and academics, the report charts the so-called "valley of death" between the creation of a technical concept with potential for commercialization (proof of principle), and the establishment of designs and processes that can be shown to meet an attractive market opportunity (reduction to practice). (http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/STPP.nsf/web/TechRisk)
Operation Rollback: America''s Secret War Behind the Iron Curtain
By Peter Grose
(Houghton Mifflin, 2000)
In 1945, the United States and the Soviet Union started secretly mobilizing forces against each other, building intricate networks of spies and digging in for the postwar era. America''s secret action plan was Rollback, an audacious strategy of espionage, subversion, and sabotage to foment insurrection in the Soviet satellite countries.
The architect of the plan, an enigmatic American diplomat first known to the world under the pseudonym X, publicly advocated an effort to "contain" communism. But in his legendary "Long Telegram," Mr. X— George Kennan— began to define a covert plan of active confrontation.
Within the secret councils of the Truman administration, hidden from the public as well as from most of the government, Kennan and his colleagues set in motion a series of daring and dramatic, though ultimately unsuccessful, secret missions behind the Iron Curtain. Concealed by all sides for four decades, the dangerous episodes of the Rollback campaign have only now come to light.
ISP Fellow Peter Grose, a long-time correspondent for the New York Times and then an executive editor of Foreign Affairs, here untangles the extraordinary, little-known story for the first time, reconstructing a hidden history of intrigue and tragic obsession, of secret plots and larger-than-life personalities. Operation Rollback reveals how and why suspicions and recriminations on both sides drove the world into the Cold War. (http://www.hmco.com/hmco/trade/index.shtml)