Event Summary
Many Palestinians today believe that Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip cannot be allowed to continue peacefully. Most Israelis believe that Palestinian violence cannot be allowed to succeed. The angriest voices among the Palestinians believe that their objectives can be obtained if only enough pain is inflicted upon Israel. The fiercest voices within Israel believe that the threat posed by the Palestinian movement can be broken by the stern and vigorous application of force.
These contrary impulses have produced a protracted and bloody confrontation in the Middle East and a tragic spiral toward hopelessness. The consequences of more than 18 months of escalating bloodshed have been deeply damaging to the prospects for peace. Indeed, many on both sides believe that the previous peace process has been irretrievably destroyed. Moreover, there appears to be no clear and politically tenable answer to the critical question: How can the cycle of violence be broken?
These points emerged at a conference on "Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution in the Middle East" co-hosted by BCSIA''s Inter-national Security Program in collaboration with Tel Aviv University''s Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies. Held at the Airlie House Conference Center in Virginia, on April 26-28, 2002, the meeting brought together approximately fifty Americans, Israelis, and Arabs to assess the origins and character of the confrontation and, more importantly, to explore options for escaping the ongoing violence.
The common view was that the Israelis and Palestinians will not be capable of resolving this crisis themselves. Therefore, some outside party will need to intervene. Various candidates for this role were considered— Jordan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia, for example-but most participants felt that the U.S. would need to play a large and sustained role, perhaps by building on the Saudi Arabian proposal for a deal in which Israel would give up its occupied territory in return for normalization of relations with the Arab world. This might require an international conference initiated by the U.S.--an idea subsequently put on the table by the Bush Administration. Given that Washington is reluctant to get involved in the Middle East and is preoccupied with its own war against terrorism, this approach is far from certain to be successful. But most other options look even less promising.
The grim tone of the meeting was reflected in a comment by Khalil Shikaki (Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey, the Palestinian Authority, Ramallah): "Sadly, today, both sides believe that violence pays; both define victory not in terms of what happens to me but in terms of how much harm is done to you; both leaders have been elevated to the status of heroes, each with popularity ratings well beyond what either could have imagined; and each is leading his society into the abyss." This is why the search for a path out of this disaster is so imperative.
"The most recent polls find 46% of Israelis now support expelling the Palestinians from the West Bank; 31% support forcing Israeli Arabs to leave the country. In the search for security, Israelis are moving to embrace grotesque options heretofore unthinkable. Continuing to muddle along this path is simply not a viable option."
--Shai Feldman, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel Aviv University