Mbeki Is Avoiding the Right Course on Zimbabwe

What in the world is Thabo Mbeki’s game plan for dealing with Robert Mugabe? The South African president knows that the Zimbabwean autocrat has been systematically destroying his country. And, like the British and US governments, Mr Mbeki wants Mr Mugabe to go. South Africa is the regional power broker, with ambitions to introduce democracy across the continent. Its army is the strongest and best trained in sub-Saharan Africa. Zimbabwe’s failure is also Mr Mbeki’s failure and is damaging South Africa’s image and economy.

For three years Mr Mbeki has somehow convinced himself that constructive engagement or quiet diplomacy would move Mr Mugabe. The Zimbabwean leader has repeatedly promised the South African and Nigerian presidents that he would reform and reinstitute the rule of law. But he is still in power, subjecting his 12m people to acute hunger, intimidation, imprisonment and torture.

The statistics are stark. Zimbabwe was until recently among the wealthiest and most balanced African economies. Its people enjoyed excellent education and medical care, unemployment was low, inflation was kept in check, the currency was stable and farmers, miners and industrialists provided jobs and growth.

No more. Annual inflation is running at 228 per cent. The local currency has collapsed against the US dollar. Unemployment has reached 80 per cent. Zimbabweans are leaving for relatively prosperous Botswana and South Africa: 75 per cent of industrial capacity is idle. Planted farming acreage fell this year by 50 per cent and harvests of maize, a staple food, are down by 65 per cent. Mr Mugabe has denied food aid to supporters of the opposition, putting 5m at risk of starvation. Schools are closed and hospitals are perilously short of medicines and staff. Zimbabwe has no funds to purchase power from the southern African grid or to import fuel. There is little food in the shops, and it is too expensive for most Zimbabweans. Last week the government even confessed that it had no money to pay for printing the local currency.

South Africa holds all the physical, economic and political cards: Mr Mbeki could end Zimbabwe’s tragedy in a moment but is reluctant to do so.

It is true Mr Mugabe assisted Mr Mbeki’s African National Congress when it was fighting apartheid in South Africa. It is true Mr Mugabe is a first-generation African liberation leader. It is also true that African presidents are reluctant to criticise or act decisively against their brethren. But Mr Mugabe’s is an egregious case. He has broken his word. He is a blot on African democratic pretensions. Mr Mbeki’s own vaunted New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) was designed to be intolerant of such poor governance.

When Idi Amin, the Ugandan dictator, sent troops into Tanzania in 1979, its president, Julius Nyerere, had the excuse he needed to invade Uganda and oust him. Mr Mbeki need not go that far. But if his own generals told Zimbabwe’s army commanders and palace guard that the game was up, Mr Mugabe’s protectors would quickly fall into line. Mr Mbeki must be prepared to make the case for military intervention on humanitarian grounds.

Alternatively, Mr Mbeki might be able simply to order the 79-year-old autocrat to go into exile, or else. After all, Mr Mbeki can tighten almost all the screws on Zimbabwe and the Mugabe leadership. Mr Mbeki would then be kingmaker and saviour combined. It is a time for tough love.

Mr Mbeki and his advisers may be reluctant to act because they somehow doubt that Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader whom Mr Mugabe blatantly robbed of a presidential election victory last year, is strong enough or capable enough to take his place. Mr Tsvangirai runs the mostly cohesive, participatory Movement for Democratic Change. It almost won a majority of parliamentary seats in the 2001 poll, again rigged by Mr Mugabe. The MDC leader is not hostile to South Africa. Nor is he a creature of white Zimbabweans, as Mr Mbeki has hinted. Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC want a new, fairly run presidential election. They want what many if not nearly all Zimbabweans want: a chance to live and prosper in a stable, democratic country, free of violent, predatory rule. Mr Mbeki can deliver a better future to Zimbabwe and restore democracy to southern Africa, if only he will.