New Iran IAEA Report: Be Cautious

One should not expect much benefit to come out of the impending IAEA report discussing Iranian nuclear activity. Past reports have stayed painstakingly clear of making any types of declarations that would seriously harm the interests of the Iranian regime. This is but one of the reasons for the United States' and her allies' critical view of IAEA chief Mohammed el-Baradei's dealings with the Iranian regime thus far.

While it is likely that the report will make mention of Iran's continued work on its nuclear program, it is unlikely that its remarks will be strong enough to justify in the minds of the Chinese and Russians — Iran's strongest defenders on the Security Council — sanctions that will have any significant new impact on the Iranian regime.

This result, coupled with the United States' recent lackadaisical National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of Iranian nuclear activity, which astonished even the most reserved of European nations, will ironically make it more likely that some sort of military confrontation will transpire in the future. Those advocating a military solution to the Iranian nuclear question will point to the recent report by the Iranian exiled National Council of Resistance of Iran that stated in contradiction to the NIE that Iran is in fact actively and secretly developing nuclear warheads. They will thus conclude that diplomatic efforts have been, and will remain ineffectual, and that only a military solution to the problem is left.

The views expressed in this piece represent those of the author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of the Belfer Center, Kennedy School, or Harvard University.