No Impunity in the Middle East

LONDON -- It is depressing but not surprising that almost exactly five years after the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq and the dissolution of the Baathist-led regime and state, we now witness just about every conceivable possible party fighting one another in Basra, Baghdad and other cities. Ironically, I have been following this during a trip between Geneva, London and Boston. 

Ironically, I say, because the United States and the United Kingdom chose to launch this war that has caused and continues to spark immense damage and suffering, while I was in Geneva, involved in meetings at the International Committee of the Red Cross -- where one of the issues discussed was impunity for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

And now, we continue to witness the consequences of the war that the Americans and British unleashed so whimsically, following decades of brutal governance by the Baathist regime headed by Saddam Hussein. Whether he and his partners in crime and cruelty will be the only ones held accountable for their conduct will not be determined for some years. The issue is critical, though, if the Middle East is ever going to emerge from its evil and painful world where crime is a policy tool and routine mode of conduct.

Only when criminal behavior is actually punished or prevented by legitimate judicial action will the next generation of Arab leaders think twice before pursuing policies of death, destruction, corruption, terrorism, and intimation. A historic milestone in this respect will be the looming indictments that will trigger the trial of those to be accused of the assassination of the late Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, and more than a dozen others who have been killed in Lebanon since February 2005.

Preparations for the tribunal are complete and the investigations into the murders are also well advanced. Later this year will likely see a moment of reckoning in Lebanese-Syrian relations, related to the indictments, given the belief by many Lebanese that the Syrian regime was and remains behind the attacks against Lebanese public figures. The trials and the quality of the evidence against the accused will almost certainly resolve this once and for all. This will be a historic moment in the modern Arab world: Suspected criminals and assassins will have been identified on the basis of a rigorous investigation, and put on trial in a fair court of law that is convened through a process at the UN Security Council that enjoys international legitimacy. 

Syrian-Lebanese tensions, however, are only a small part of a much larger problem in the region: whether or not all political leaders bear the consequences of their actions. Iranians, Turks, Israelis, and foreign armies and leaders -- including the American and British in Iraq today -- must be held accountable according to the same moral and legal standards, and judicial safeguards and procedures, that are being used in the case of the murders in Lebanon, or that apply to the trials of the former Iraqi Baathist leaders. 

Which brings us back to Iraq this week, and the renewed large-scale fighting among multiple protagonists. The most dangerous new element in the fighting in Basra and other parts of southern Iraq is the warfare between different groups that are predominantly Shiite, alongside other warring groups. This confirms yet again that the Shiite-Sunni lens is too simplistic for analyzing developments in Iraq.

The post-2003 timeframe is also too short for a proper understanding of what is happening and what is at stake in Iraq today. Iraq and the Arab world have less than a century of modern statehood, and over 5000 years of history. Their concepts of nationhood and citizenship remain heavily constrained by more powerful allegiances to tribal, ethnic or religious identities. It's hard to know if a typical fighter in Basra today is fighting for a neighborhood, a tribe, a religion, a gang, a state, a militia, access to economic assets, or an anti-imperial need for sovereignty and liberation.

The fighting will go on for years in Iraq, until Iraqis themselves decide if they wish to remain unified or break up into smaller countries. The state collapse, social fragmentation and widespread militancy, criminality and violence that were unleashed by the Anglo-American invasion of 2003 will play themselves out over many years to come, and may trigger similar turmoil in other Middle Eastern countries.

This is why I found it supremely ironic to hear US President George Bush Thursday say that, "There's a strong commitment by the central government of Iraq to say that no one is above the law."

That is exactly how many people around the world feel about Anglo-American policy in Iraq, which must be subjected to some sort of legitimate accountability, as were Saddam Hussein and his fellow killers -- as will be the killers of Hariri and other murdered Lebanese. 

Neither Middle Eastern tyrants nor American and British leaders should be allowed to unleash massive death and destruction with impunity.