Nuclear Deterrence Theory, Nuclear Proliferation, and National Missile Defense

Overview

Robert Powell of the University of California at Berkeley uses nuclear deterrence theory to address three major concerns involving nuclear proliferation and national missile defense (NMD): How might the spread of nuclear weapons affect the ability of the United States to achieve its foreign policy objectives? Can a national missile defense protect against nuclear blackmail by a rogue state?  What are the likely political and economic costs to the United States of pursuing NMD? Powell warns that although “NMD would give the United States somewhat more freedom of action and make a rogue state more likely to back down in a crisis,” it could also increase the risk of a nuclear attack on the United States. This heightened risk, says Powell, would be “a direct consequence of a greater U.S. willingness to press its interests harder in a crisis” once it has missile defenses.