Pakistan Election Update and Analysis: The Polls

Pakistan's election will take place on Monday, and the army has been activated to ensure security: this security, however, is lacking. Parts of the FATA are restricted, so it's not clear how - or whether - polling will take place in some towns. Even within Pakistan, the election campaign weeks have been made most notable, not by the speeches of the candidates, but by the suicide bombings and those killed at events. But despite these problems, it looks highly likely at this point that the elections will take place as scheduled. Perhaps they will be accompanied by violence.

The anticipated results of the election are, however, becoming increasingly clear. Two polls conducted in the past few weeks have clearly shown that the PPP has the greatest support at about 36% - not enough to rule independently, but clearly enough to take the lead position. The PML-N comes next at around 25%, followed by the PML-Q at only 12%. On top of this, Musharraf's support has plummeted to 30%, and 70% feel he should resign now. While exit polling will not be permitted, these entry polls do make clear the fact that Musharraf's party, the PML-Q, can not win these elections legitimately.

On a more positive note, the recent polls also indicated that support for Osama bin Ladin, al Qaida and the Taliban, was down at less than 1% and 3%, respectively; this is even true in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Unfortunately, support for President Bush is almost as low as support for al Qaida, as is support for Pakistani cooperation in the War on Terror. On the other hand, Pakistanis do feel that security is one of the greatest threats to themselves, after the struggling economy.

Despite these polls, the public election results are still to be determined. So is the response of the people to these results, and perhaps more importantly, the response of President Musharraf and the military. But Pakistan's future policy is already somewhat determined: the threat to Pakistan of the current militant activity is great, and the people realize this. Whoever becomes Prime Minister will have to deal with this threat effectively and quickly.