Posing Problems without Catching Up: China's Rise and Challenges for U.S. Security Policy

In this issue, Thomas Christensen of MIT reflects on whether China will present a security threat to the United States and its East Asian allies in the next several decades. Christensen argues that simple realist notions about the importance of power in international politics have limited utility in assessing this threat. China need not catch up to the United States “by an overall measure of national military power or technology” to pose a significant challenge to U.S. interests in the region. Were China to acquire certain weapons capabilities and adopt coercive tactics, Beijing elites might conclude that a cross-strait conflict involving Taiwan, and even the United States, could serve China’s interests.