PRC Assertiveness in the South China Sea: Measuring Continuity and Change, 1970–2015

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Published: Winter 2020/21

In this Sept. 23, 2015, file photo, Chinese Coast Guard members approach Filipino fishermen as they confront each other off Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, also called the West Philippine Sea. The Philippine defense chief says aerial surveillance shows Chinese coast guard ships are still guarding a disputed shoal but Filipinos were seen fishing there "unmolested" for the first time in years. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said Sunday, Oct. 30, 2016, the return of Filipino fishermen to Scarborough Shoal was "a most welcome development."

Summary

A new typology of “assertive” state behaviors in maritime and territorial disputes, and original time-series events data covering the period from 1970 to 2015, shows that China’s key policy change in the South China Sea—rapid administrative buildup and introduction of regular coercive behaviors—occurred in 2007, earlier than most analysis has supposed. This policy change was a lagged effect of decisions taken in the 1990s to build specific capabilities designed to realize strategic objectives that emerged in the 1970s.

Recommended citation

Andrew Chubb, "PRC Assertiveness in the South China Sea: Measuring Continuity and Change, 1970–2015," International Security, Vol. 45, No. 3 (Winter 2020/21), pp. 79-121, doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00400.