Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security
Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War
Summary
AI is not a simple substitute for human decision-making. Commercial machine learning advances are reducing the costs of statistical prediction, but they are simultaneously increasing the value of this technology’s key complements—quality data and clear judgment. Yet these complements may not be present, or present to the same degree, in war. Consequently, AI-enabled conflict will likely involve significant uncertainty, organizational friction, and chronic controversy. Greater military reliance on AI will therefore make the human element in war even more important, not less.
For more information on this publication:
Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation:
Avi Goldfarb and Jon R. Lindsay, "Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War," International Security, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Winter 2021/22), pp. 7–50, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00425.
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Paper
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Addressing Russian and Chinese Cyber Threats: A Transatlantic Perspective on Threats to Ukraine and Beyond
Journal Article
- Middle East Policy
Hezbollah's Coercion And the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal
Analysis & Opinions
- International Affairs Blog
Nuclear Policy at the G7: Six Key Questions
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Analysis & Opinions
US-China Relations: An Interview with Graham Allison
Summary
AI is not a simple substitute for human decision-making. Commercial machine learning advances are reducing the costs of statistical prediction, but they are simultaneously increasing the value of this technology’s key complements—quality data and clear judgment. Yet these complements may not be present, or present to the same degree, in war. Consequently, AI-enabled conflict will likely involve significant uncertainty, organizational friction, and chronic controversy. Greater military reliance on AI will therefore make the human element in war even more important, not less.
Avi Goldfarb and Jon R. Lindsay, "Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War," International Security, Vol. 46, No. 3 (Winter 2021/22), pp. 7–50, https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00425.
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Addressing Russian and Chinese Cyber Threats: A Transatlantic Perspective on Threats to Ukraine and Beyond
Journal Article - Middle East Policy
Hezbollah's Coercion And the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal
Analysis & Opinions - International Affairs Blog
Nuclear Policy at the G7: Six Key Questions
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Analysis & Opinions
US-China Relations: An Interview with Graham Allison