Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War

Summary

AI is not a simple substitute for human decision-making. Commercial machine learning advances are reducing the costs of statistical prediction, but they are simultaneously increasing the value of this technology’s key complements—quality data and clear judgment. Yet these complements may not be present, or present to the same degree, in war. Consequently, AI-enabled conflict will likely involve significant uncertainty, organizational friction, and chronic controversy. Greater military reliance on AI will therefore make the human element in war even more important, not less.