Respect Will Decide the Gaza Ceasefire

BEIRUT -- The coming days will reveal much about the mettle and intentions of the Palestinian group Hamas which now effectively runs a mini-state in the Gaza Strip, after defeating its rival Fateh in a few street skirmishes last year. The six-month-old ceasefire with Israel ends this week and talks are going on now between Israeli and Egyptian officials about renewing it. Hamas leaders in Damascus and Gaza have given slightly different versions of their positions, some leaning towards a ceasefire extension and others towards a resumption of fighting.

Hamas has stated that it will extend the ceasefire -- and indeed has offered Israel a long-term truce for many years -- if the Israelis in turn meet their side of the deal, which is to stop killing and arresting Palestinians, colonizing their land, and strangling them economically. The fact that Hamas would consider letting the ceasefire lapse speaks much about its mindset and the options that it is willing to pursue. This moment of decision-making allows us to accurately gauge what Hamas is all about, rather than seeing it through the lens of exaggerated misperceptions.

Reasonable people would expect that Israelis and Palestinians alike prefer a ceasefire to active warfare, especially since mutual attacks have never resolved the core conflict. Hamas' decision to extend the ceasefire is not going to be made on the basis of what makes its people more or less comfortable, or what entices Israelis into opening the gates a little bit wider to allow more consumer goods to enter Gaza. The basis on which Hamas makes such decisions reflects its wider worldview of the character and aims of Israel, and the nature of its confrontation with Israel.

Like other Islamist groups, Hamas calculates on the basis of a longer time frame than the next election, shifting public opinion sentiments, or whether or not it will get invited to tea in the White House. The single most important factor in the mind of Islamist leaders who decide such things is whether the agreement to renew the ceasefire reflects mutual respect and an acceptance of the principle of equal rights for Israel and Hamas.

If the deal proposed is seen to have forced Israel to change its position and respect the terms of the agreement, Hamas will extend. If it merely comprises vague Israeli promises in return for Hamas and other militant groups stopping their rocket attacks against Israel, the deal will collapse. Hamas' view is that mutual needs, rather than Israeli security, must be assured for a ceasefire to happen. 

The driving force for such a posture is the Islamist sense that the battle to defend and reclaim the land will be a long one, and it will require a heavy price in lives and suffering before Israel negotiates sincerely, and sees the Palestinians as humans worthy of the same rights as Israelis.

Hamas showed its strength a few days ago, when some 200,000 supporters rallied in Gaza to mark the group's 21st anniversary. It has generated strong support as well as deep opposition among Palestinians and other Arabs, but more important for it is whether or not it has generated respect in Israel. If the Israelis feel Hamas can fight a long-term battle, then Hamas will feel it has achieved an important goal: the respect of its enemy.

Hamas is well entrenched in Gaza now and is prepared for an Israeli military attack, if such an attack takes place. These Palestinian Islamists clearly have learned from their colleagues in Hizbullah and other such groups, who have shown themselves to be the most adept Arabs at fighting Israel militarily. They have obviously used the past year to prepare for the eventuality of a new Israeli attack on their little statelet -- making the cost to Israel likely to be similar to the price Israel paid when it went into south Lebanon years ago. 

Israeli leaders have warned that they will have to take drastic measures if the rockets from Gaza do not stop falling on southern Israel. Hamas ignores such threats, because it knows that Israel has reached the limit of what it can do with conventional military force. Israel directly occupied Gaza for decades and used brutal force in trying to pacify it, which only succeeded in giving birth to Hamas. More Israeli tanks in the streets of Gaza would only reflect Israeli renewed perplexity about how to deal with the group, rather than a coherent plan to resolve the conflict.

The main criteria for a renewal of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire are not fear of the other or the ability to inflict military pain, but respect for the other and the willingness to deal as equals.

Rami G. Khouri is Editor-at-large of The Daily Star, and Director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, in Beirut, Lebanon.